Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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597 FXUS62 KMLB 091705 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 105 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Curtailed VCTS to only the Treasure Coast terminals (VRB/FPR/SUA) late this afternoon and early evening as ample dry air aloft will stifle convective development over the Greater Orlando area today. Near the coast, winds become ESE 5-12 KT through early evening with WSW winds 5-10 KT over Greater Orlando. VFR prevails outside of any isolated thunderstorm activity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Another hot day in store across the area, with temperatures potentially reaching record values this afternoon. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s along the coast, and into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. A few inland spots may be even be able to reach the 100 degree mark this afternoon. Drier air will exist across areas near to north of Orlando, with more humid conditions to the south where greater moisture and potential for afternoon showers and storms exist. Peak heat index values to 108 to 110 still forecast where a Heat Advisory is in effect from Orange, Osceola and Okeechobee counties, as well as mainland Brevard County and inland portions of Indian River and St. Lucie counties. Elsewhere, maximum heat index values are forecast to be closer to 102 to 107 (still elevated but just below Heat Advisory criteria). If planning to be outdoors today, even for a short periods of time, make sure to stay well hydrated and take frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned spaces. This level of heat can affect anyone without adequate hydration and effective cooling. Remember to never leave children or pets behind in vehicles! CAM guidance is still in pretty good agreement showing isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms developing mainly near to south of a line from Orlando to the Cape where GOES 16 TPW imagery shows PW values of 1.5-1.8 inches. However, much of Lake and Volusia counties are likely to remain dry where lower PW values around 1.3 inches exist, and have therefore kept mentionable rain chances out of the forecast for this area. Elsewhere, rain chances range from around 20 percent across Orange, Seminole and northern Brevard counties, to 30-50 percent farther south. Greatest storm coverage will mostly be confined to sea/lake breeze interactions near Lake Okeechobee and across Osceola/Okeechobee counties later this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today-Tonight...Westerly winds back to the southeast this afternoon behind the east coast breeze (10-15 kt). Winds veer again to the SSW tonight and approach 17-18 kt over the Gulf Stream, before decreasing toward daybreak Monday. Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible, mainly south of Cape Canaveral and Sebastian Inlet. Seas 1-2 ft. Monday-Thursday...Increasing moisture, especially from Tuesday onward, will lead to higher rain and isolated storm chances into mid week. On Monday, SW winds back to the SSE behind the sea breeze, increasing and veering SSW again Monday night (especially over the Gulf Stream). More persistent SSW flow on Tuesday will back to the SSE by Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected mid to late week. Boating conditions deteriorate due to high rain and storm chances, though seas outside of storms will generally remain 2-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 97 74 90 / 10 40 40 70 MCO 76 95 75 87 / 10 50 50 80 MLB 75 94 74 89 / 20 70 60 80 VRB 75 94 73 89 / 30 70 60 80 LEE 75 96 76 91 / 0 40 40 70 SFB 75 97 76 90 / 10 50 40 70 ORL 77 97 76 89 / 10 50 50 70 FPR 74 94 73 88 / 30 70 60 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ045-053-058-247- 254-259-347-547-647. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Heil