925
FXUS62 KMLB 241948
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
348 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...Hot and Muggy Conditions Through the Week...
...Higher Coverage of Showers and Lightning Storms Each Day...

Current-Tonight...  The east coast sea breeze has formed and is
pushing inland this afternoon. Scattered showers have formed along
the Treasure Coast along the sea breeze, as well as the Atlantic
waters, mainly from Sebastian southward. The first lightning strike
across ECFL of the day was observed across Martin county this
afternoon, shortly before 3 PM. Current temperatures are in the
upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices ranging from 97-105 degrees.

Upper level low pressure across southern Quebec/Ontario today will
shift south and eastward into the northeast US through tonight. This
will drag a surface boundary southward across the eastern US.
Locally, winds have become E/SE behind the east coast sea breeze,
with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph at times. Deep
moisture remains over the local area, with GOES-16 satellite imagery
showing PW values between 1.9-2.0" this afternoon. Warm and muggy
conditions today, with afternoon highs generally in the low 90s,
with mid 90s possible across the north where lower cloud cover is
forecast. Peak heat indices will range from 102-107 degrees.

Higher coverage of showers and lightning storms this afternoon and
evening (PoP ~60 percent), mainly across the western interior. The
east coast sea breeze will continue to push inland, with the sea
breeze collision forecast to occur across our far western interior
and into the western portion of central Florida by late afternoon
into the early evening. Main storm threats will be locally heavy
rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds
up to 35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a
quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Locally
higher amounts could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor
flooding of urban and low lying areas.

Convection should dissipate or move out of the local area before
midnight, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning
storms remaining possible over the Atlantic waters through the
overnight. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions over land areas
through tonight. Winds will become light overnight, shifting to the
W/SW. Temperatures will continue to be muggy, with overnight lows in
the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday... Upper level low pressure across the northeast US coast
will move offshore during the day, dragging a surface boundary
across the southeast US and off the Atlantic seaboard. At the
surface, the Bermuda High axis just off the eastern Florida coast
will shift eastward, veering the winds W/SW. Locally, deeper
moisture will remain in place with forecast PW values ranging from
2.0-2.2". Wind speeds will generally be 5-10 mph, allowing for the
east coast seabreeze to form and push inland in the afternoon. The
sea breeze collision is forecast to occur across central Florida,
however slightly more eastward than previous days. Higher coverage
of showers and lightning storms once again, with PoP 60-70 percent
areawide. Main storm threats will be heavy downpours, occasional to
frequent lightning strikes, and wind gusts up to 35 mph.  Warm and
humid conditions will persist with afternoon highs in the low to mid
90s. Peak heat indices will range from 102 to 107 degrees.

Wednesday-Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Another moisture
boundary is forecast to sink across the southeast U.S. Thursday into
Friday. However, its local influence may become limited as waves of
drier air move eastward from the Gulf. An ECMWF solution attempts to
hold onto higher moisture values with modeled PWATs between 1.9-2.1"
into the weekend. The GFS indicates a larger influence from the
drier airmass with PWATs ranging 1.5-1.7" across the peninsula
Friday afternoon. Regardless, a typical summer time pattern is
expected to prevail supporting scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms into the weekend (60-70%). Southwest to west flow
remains in place through late week. A more dominant west coast sea
breeze will promote a sea breeze collision across the central or
eastern side of the peninsula through late week before winds shift
south to southeast into Saturday. Weak, unidirectional wind profiles
and poor mid level lapse rates should aid in limiting overall storm
intensity each afternoon. Primary storm hazards include localized
heavy rainfall, lightning strikes, and gusty winds.

The high temperature forecast remains steady in the low 90s through
late week, with low to mid 90s into the weekend and early next week.
Peak heat index values are generally expected between 102-107
degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain over the local
waters while shifting slightly south and eastward. Winds will be
southerly flow into this evening, with winds shifting southwest
overnight. Speeds will generally be 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft
across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters.
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible
through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Tuesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A surface
ridge axis across the western Atlantic is nudged eastward on
Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an offshore
southwest to west component into mid week. Seas will generally be
2 ft with seas up to 3ft well offshore. Deep moisture will
continue to promote higher coverage of showers and lightning
storms across the local waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

TAFs begin with VCTS/TEMPO TSRA (18Z-01Z) and MVFR CIGs in
storms. Afternoon/evening scat`d storms are forecast as the ECSB
moves inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze/outflow
boundaries. Shower/storm chances diminish after sunset and end by
midnight. E/SE winds at 5-10kts veer S/SW overnight and then back
onshore into the afternoon Tuesday at 5-10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  75  92 /  20  60  30  70
MCO  77  93  76  92 /  40  70  30  70
MLB  76  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70
LEE  77  95  77  93 /  60  70  30  70
SFB  77  94  75  93 /  30  70  30  70
ORL  77  94  77  92 /  40  70  30  70
FPR  74  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Fehling