181
FXUS62 KMLB 241823
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
223 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

TAFs begin with VCTS/TEMPO TSRA (18Z-01Z) and MVFR CIGs in
storms. Afternoon/evening scat`d storms are forecast as the ECSB
moves inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze/outflow
boundaries. Shower/storm chances diminish after sunset and end by
midnight. E/SE winds at 5-10kts veer S/SW overnight and then back
onshore into the afternoon Tuesday at 5-10kts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Isolated showers ongoing across the Atlantic this morning, mainly
from Cape Canaveral southward. Satellite and surface observations
shows some low and high level clouds streaming across the local
area currently. GOES-16 PWAT imagery shows deeper moisture
remaining in place with PWAT values between 1.8-2.0". Convection
today will be dominantly driven by diurnal heating and sea breeze
and boundary interactions. Higher coverage of precip once again today,
with highest PoP ~60 percent, mainly across the western interior.
The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland this
afternoon, with the collision expected to occur across the
western central peninsula by late afternoon into the early
evening. Main storm threats will be locally heavy rainfall,
occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds up to
35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a
quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Locally
higher amounts could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor
flooding of urban and low lying areas. Convection should dissipate
or move out of the local area before midnight, with isolated to
scattered showers and isolated lightning storms remaining possible
over the Atlantic waters through the overnight. Hot and muggy
today, with afternoon highs in the low 90s, except mid 90s
possible across the north where less cloud cover is expected.
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to rain and
lightning chances this afternoon and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Today-Friday...A surface ridge axis across the western Atlantic is
nudged eastward on Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an
offshore southwest to west component into mid week. Seas of 2-3 ft
today subside becoming dominantly 2 ft by Tuesday. Occasional seas to
3 ft well offshore. Deep moisture will continue to promote high
coverage of showers and lightning storms across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  75  92 /  20  60  30  70
MCO  77  93  76  92 /  40  70  30  70
MLB  76  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70
LEE  77  95  77  93 /  60  70  30  70
SFB  77  94  75  93 /  30  70  30  70
ORL  77  94  77  92 /  40  70  30  70
FPR  74  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Fehling