422
FXUS62 KMLB 241340
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Isolated showers ongoing across the Atlantic this morning, mainly
from Cape Canaveral southward. Satellite and surface observations
shows some low and high level clouds streaming across the local
area currently. GOES-16 PWAT imagery shows deeper moisture
remaining in place with PWAT values between 1.8-2.0". Convection
today will be dominantly driven by diurnal heating and sea breeze
and boundary interactions. Higher coverage of precip once again today,
with highest PoP ~60 percent, mainly across the western interior.
The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland this
afternoon, with the collision expected to occur across the
western central peninsula by late afternoon into the early
evening. Main storm threats will be locally heavy rainfall,
occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds up to
35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a
quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Locally
higher amounts could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor
flooding of urban and low lying areas. Convection should dissipate
or move out of the local area before midnight, with isolated to
scattered showers and isolated lightning storms remaining possible
over the Atlantic waters through the overnight. Hot and muggy
today, with afternoon highs in the low 90s, except mid 90s
possible across the north where less cloud cover is expected.
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to rain and
lightning chances this afternoon and overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The Atlc ridge axis located near Lake Okeechobee will produce a
light offshore wind flow through 14Z-15Z around 5 knots with
mainly VFR conds. Patchy MVFR CIGs possible SUA-VRB. A wind shift
out of the SE will occur at coastal terminals btwn 16Z-18Z around
10 knots. The sea breeze should spark isold to sct SHRA/TSRA just
inland from the coast so have maintained VC term for coastal
terminals aft 15Z. Confidence and coverage not high enough to
warrant TEMPO there. Expect an increase in storm coverage over the
north interior aft 19Z assocd with boundary collisions so have
added a TEMPO for MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in TSRA at MCO/SFB/LEE btwn
20Z-24Z. There is a chance that convection may hold off a little
later, esp at LEE based on model trends so adjustments to the
TEMPOs may be necessary.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Today...Not much has changed over the last 24 hours, and a similar
forecast is on tap today. Early morning GOES-16 PWAT imagery shows
deep moisture remaining in place with PWATs between 1.9-2.1". High
coverage of showers an lightning storms remain in the forecast today
(~60%), with convection dominantly driven by diurnal heating and
mesoscale boundaries. Light southerly flow prevails for one more
day, allowing for the development of both the east and west coast
sea breezes. Each sea breeze will gradually move inland through late
morning into the afternoon, and a collision is expected across the
central peninsula by late afternoon into the early evening. Limited
steering flow continues a heavy rainfall threat today. As observed
yesterday, slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a
quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Locally
higher amounts could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor
flooding of urban and low lying areas. Frequent lightning strikes
and localized gusty winds also remain in play today.

High temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s across much of
east central Florida. A few areas across the north could sneak into
the mid 90s where less cloud cover is forecast before afternoon
showers and storms develop. Muggy conditions will contribute to peak
heat index values up to 105 degrees.

Tuesday...Low pressure moves off the northeast U.S. coast, dragging
a surface boundary across the southeast and off the Atlantic
seaboard. Surface high pressure offshore gets nudged westward.
Locally, west to southwest flow develops on the northwest side of
the ridge axis. Moisture becomes reinforced with modeled PWATs
between 2-2.2". Offshore steering flow remains light, still
allowing for the development of the east coast sea breeze. A sea
breeze collision is forecast to occur slightly more eastward
compared to the prior days. Once again, high coverage of afternoon
showers and lightning storms is anticipated (70%) producing heavy
downpours, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and
localized gusty winds.

Humid conditions persist with afternoon temperatures in the low 90s.
Peak heat index values are forecast up to 106 degrees.

Wednesday-Sunday...Another moisture boundary is forecast to sink
across the southeast U.S. Thursday into Friday. However, its local
influence may become limited as waves of drier air move eastward from
the Gulf. An ECMWF solution attempts to hold onto higher moisture
values with modeled PWATs between 1.9-2.1" into the weekend. The GFS
indicates a larger influence from the drier airmass with PWATs
ranging 1.5-1.7" across the peninsula Friday afternoon. Regardless, a
typical summer time pattern is expected to prevail supporting
scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms into the weekend
(60-70%). Southwest to west flow remains in place through late week.
A more dominant west coast sea breeze will promote a sea breeze
collision across the central or eastern side of the peninsula
through late week before winds shift south to southeast into
Saturday. Weak, unidirectional wind profiles and poor mid level
lapse rates should aid in limiting overall storm intensity each
afternoon. Primary storm hazards include localized heavy rainfall,
lightning strikes, and gusty winds.

The high temperature forecast remains steady in the low 90s
through the end of the week. Peak heat index values are generally
expected between 102-106 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Today-Friday...A surface ridge axis across the western Atlantic is
nudged eastward on Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an
offshore southwest to west component into mid week. Seas of 2-3 ft
today subside becoming dominantly 2 ft by Tuesday. Occasional seas to
3 ft well offshore. Deep moisture will continue to promote high
coverage of showers and lightning storms across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  93  75 /  50  20  70  40
MCO  93  77  93  76 /  60  40  70  40
MLB  90  76  90  74 /  50  20  70  50
VRB  89  74  90  75 /  60  20  70  30
LEE  93  77  93  77 /  60  60  70  40
SFB  94  77  93  76 /  60  30  70  40
ORL  94  77  93  77 /  60  40  70  40
FPR  89  74  90  74 /  60  20  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Kelly