737
FXUS62 KMLB 232003
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

KEY MESSAGES:

- High rain shower and storm chances with locally heavy rainfall
  into mid week

- High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values
  at 100-107 degrees each afternoon


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Currently-Tonight... Current KMLB radar imagery shows numerous
showers and scattered lightning storms over much of east central
Florida (mainly over the interior and along the Volusia county
coast). Convection has been slow moving due to weak wind fields.
Scattered to numerous showers (PoPs ~ 60-70%) and scattered
lightning storms are forecast through this evening with coverage
forecast to diminish shortly after sunset before ending by
midnight. The main hazards associated with lightning storms into
this evening will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes,
locally heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short amount of time with slow
moving showers/storms), and wind gusts up to 30-40mph. South to
southeast winds at 5-15mph are expected to become light and
variable overnight.

Monday... The western Atlantic ridge will slowly move east
tomorrow as a major shortwave trough deepens over the Northeastern
CONUS. South to southeast winds at around 10mph are forecast into
the afternoon to the east of the Orlando metro with west to
southwest winds at 5-10mph to the west. The forecast is similar
tomorrow with scattered showers and isolated lightning storms
expected to develop near the Treasure Coast before coverage
increases into the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers (PoPs
~ 50-70%) and scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop
into the afternoon and early evening as the east coast sea breeze
pushes inland and boundary collisions occur between the weaker
west coast sea breeze and outflow from previous storms. Afternoon
highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100-107
degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny
skies.

Tuesday-Saturday (modified previous discussion)... Moisture
becomes reinforced on Tuesday as an area of low pressure lifts off
the northeast U.S. coast and an accompanying surface boundary
sinks towards Florida. Mid level high pressure across the southern
U.S. retreats westward into mid week as a shortwave trough
develops over the southeastern US. Another boundary sinks toward
the state into Thursday, keeping PWATs elevated into late week. In
response, coverage of afternoon showers and storms remain high
(60-70%) each afternoon through the mid and long term forecast. A
diurnal sea breeze development is expected each afternoon. Light
west to southwest flow with a slightly stronger east coast sea
breeze is expected Tuesday with sea breeze collisions mostly
confined to the central to western side of the peninsula. West to
southwest low level flow becomes more predominate mid to late
week which will generally favor the inland extent of the west
coast sea breeze through late week, and any sea breeze collisions
are favored across the central or eastern side of the peninsula.
Guidance then suggests a transition to easterly flow into the
weekend. The greatest hazards with any developing storms continues
to be occasional to frequent lightning strikes and periods of
locally heavy rainfall (1-3" a short amount of time).

High temperatures remain steady through the period and warm into
the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Peak heat index values will
generally range between 102-107 through late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Currently-Monday... Scattered showers and lightning storms are
forecast to move offshore into this evening. South to southeast
winds at around 10 to 15kts are forecast diminish into Monday
morning at 5 to 10kts before backing southeast into the mid
morning and afternoon. Scattered showers and lightning storms are
forecast to develop into Monday morning over the local Atlantic
with offshore moving showers/storms expected in the evening. The
main hazards associated with lightning storms will be occasional
to frequent lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts up
to 35mph. Seas are forecast to build to 2 to 3 ft with up to 4 ft
over the offshore Volusia county waters tonight.

Tuesday-Thursday... Light southwest to west flow develops over
the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each
afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas
remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well
offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Another afternoon of showers and storms are forecast across east
central Florida, particularly across the interior terminals and
MLB northward along the coast. VCTS ongoing with TEMPOs from
18-23Z today, with MVFR VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Activity will
begin to diminish after 00Z, with quiet conditions across the
Treasure Coast terminals and lingering VCSH at the remaining
coastal and interior terminals through 06Z. ESE winds this
afternoon will become southerly and variable overnight. Winds pick
back up out of the SW across the interior and at DAB and TIX,
with the sea breeze developing around 15Z from MLB southward,
making winds easterly. VCSH will be possible along the sea breeze
from MLB southward after 15Z, with increasing shower and storm
coverage forecast as the ECSB progresses inland tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  93  76  93 /  30  60  30  70
MCO  74  93  76  92 /  40  70  30  70
MLB  74  91  75  91 /  30  50  30  60
VRB  74  90  75  91 /  30  50  20  50
LEE  76  94  77  94 /  50  70  30  70
SFB  75  94  76  94 /  40  70  30  70
ORL  75  93  77  93 /  40  70  30  70
FPR  73  90  74  91 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen