Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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577 FXUS62 KMLB 221745 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 145 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions forecast outside of convection. Ongoing shower and storm development across southern portions of ECFL will expand northwestward towards the interior terminals. TEMPOs in effect at MLB and TIX through 20Z, with TEMPOs at the interior terminals between 19 to 23Z for MVFR VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Lingering VCSH along the coast will diminish after 00Z, with conditions across the interior improving after 03Z. Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight, picking back up out of the south between 5 to 10 knots tomorrow morning after 15Z. Another day of showers and storms is forecast for tomorrow, with VCSH at the coastal terminals after 16Z. Activity will expand towards the interior in the afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Current KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning storms developing along a convergent line over the local Atlantic which extends from an area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the Georgia and northeast Florida coasts. Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Showers and lighting storms are expected to increase (PoPs ~50-70%) in coverage into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the weaker west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The main hazards associated with lighting storms are expected to be wind gusts up to 30mph, locally heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short period of time), and frequent lightning strikes. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists over east central Florida today to the north of the Treasure Coast where 1-3" in a short period of time has the potential to result in minor flooding (5% risk), especially over areas that have recently received heavy rainfall. East to southeast winds are forecast to increase this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland at around 10mph with gusts to 20mph. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue- Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 90 75 92 / 50 70 30 60 MCO 75 90 75 92 / 50 70 30 60 MLB 75 90 74 90 / 40 60 30 60 VRB 75 89 74 90 / 30 60 30 60 LEE 76 91 76 92 / 60 70 30 60 SFB 75 91 75 93 / 50 70 30 60 ORL 76 91 75 92 / 50 70 30 60 FPR 75 89 73 90 / 30 60 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Tollefsen