Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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435 FXUS62 KMLB 200132 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... (Through Thursday Evening) Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 -------------------------KEY MESSAGES--------------------------- -Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are expected tonight through early Thursday. Breezy at times along the coast. -Weak low pressure has formed northeast of the Bahamas. It has a low (30%) chance of tropical development before reaching North Florida early on Friday. Additional bands of breezy to windy showers and isolated storms will accompany this feature late Thursday into Friday morning. -Hazardous beach and boating conditions persist due to wind-driven seas and surf. The risk of deadly rip currents remains high. ---------------------------------------------------------------- On this last evening of spring, Florida continues to reside south of a sprawling heat dome, with near-record H5 heights approaching 600 dam over the Mid-Atlantic. A parade of low-amplitude disturbances continue to trek through here in the deep easterly fetch that extends from the subtropical Atlantic across the Sunshine State. We caught a short break in the showers over much of the area early this evening, but that is quickly coming to an end as the next weak feature is rippling through the flow. Embedded in a ribbon of higher 1-3 km RH, scattered showers are pushing onshore, and this will be the trend through the night. Lightning will be uncommon, but there remains a 20% chance of storms. Lows will fall toward the mid 70s, except upper 70s along the US-1 corridor where breezes will stay elevated. Behind tonight`s disturbance, a tail of moisture is forecast to slowly meander from the Treasure Coast into SoFlo on Thursday morning, keeping a few showers in the forecast for those spots. However, a batch of drier air and subsidence is evident in water vapor imagery just behind this feature, so the remainder of East Central Florida should get a lull (rain chances drop to 20-30%) through the morning and even much of the afternoon. We`ll stay breezy with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Attention then turns to a somewhat healthier feature (Invest 92L) in the SW Atlantic, currently about 500 miles to our east. Infrared satellite imagery and NHC analysis indicate weak low pressure has formed. There remains a low chance (30%) for tropical development as it approaches North Florida over the next 24 hours. Its biggest impediment appears to be dry air that is wrapped around its southwestern flank. Meanwhile, deeper moisture (PW`s >2.3") resides over its northern semicircle. Once it gets to the coast, areas near and north of the track of the surface low/trough will have the highest potential to experience a period of increased showers and enhanced wind gusts (30-40 mph) late Thursday into early Friday. Tracking such a weak feature is difficult, but guidance brings it close to or just north of Volusia County on approach tomorrow evening. While the relatively stronger onshore winds still appear to affect locations immediately north of the district, we will continue to monitor its progress and tweak the forecast as needed. Bottom line, another stretch of breezy, wet weather will likely affect areas especially north of Cape Canaveral as it passes by. As noted in the Key Messages, beach and boating conditions remain hazardous through at least early Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Overnight...Another weather disturbance will bring scattered to numerous showers and a 20% chance of lightning storms. The bigger concern remains fresh easterly winds around 20 KT with gusts to 25 KT. This is driving rough seas of 6-9 FT. A Small Craft Advisory is effect for the entire local Atlantic. Thursday-Sunday (previous discussion)...Hazardous boating conditions continue through at least late Thursday night with seas 7-9 ft Thursday possibly approaching 10 ft offshore. Breezy ENE winds up to 15-20 kts will linger, though slightly lower than Wednesday. Improving boating conditions will end the work week and continue into the weekend, as winds and seas diminish. Lingering seas 4-5 ft Friday afternoon will become 2-3ft by Sunday. Increasingly southeasterly winds are forecast at 10-15 kts. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue, capable of producing locally higher wind gusts and seas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 IMPACTS: -Occasional MVFR CIGs/VIS in quick-moving showers. -Gusty easterly breezes, locally exceeding 25 KT. Persistence is the name of the game as we await the next weak disturbance in the deep easterly flow off the Atlantic. This provides an increase in shower coverage late this evening through early Thursday morning, with a diminishing trend between 20/10-13Z. The chance of lightning is around 20% tonight. VFR will dominate outside of showers, though a few intervals of MVFR CIGs are occurring along the coast. East winds will remain gusty at times. At the tail end or just beyond these TAFs, a stronger piece of energy approaches the NE coast of Florida tomorrow evening. With it, the potential increases for another period of showers and reduced CIGs, particularly for DAB/TIX/SFB. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Friday-Tuesday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Thursday-Friday...An area of showers and storms, associated with a weak trough over the southwestern Atlantic, will work west- northwest tomorrow into Friday. Higher PW surrounding this feature will work across the northern portions of ECFL late tomorrow afternoon and evening. With persistent onshore flow, scattered rain showers and isolated lightning storms remain in the forecast. 30-50 PoP sufficiently covers these waves of moisture with occasional breaks in activity. The QPF is highest generally near and north of the Cape, reaching up to 1-1.50" through Saturday morning. However, locally heavier rainfall could produce 1-2" in a much quicker timeframe, especially where repeated rounds of rain move over the same locations. Temperatures will continue to warm each day, despite intermittent cloud cover. Highs in the mid to upper 80s in most locations, up to 90 degrees inland, are forecast for Thursday. Friday looks to be a couple to a few degrees warmer areawide. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...As the aforementioned trough washes out over the eastern US, surface ridging is forecast to build into the western Atlantic. The ridge axis will extend towards the Florida peninsula, where it will linger into next week. Sufficient moisture remains through the extended period, maintaining daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The NBM continues to suggest very high (likely) PoPs for this period, but continue to keep PoPs around 50 percent or so. Onshore winds will veer progressively southerly into next week, allowing for a more centralized sea breeze collision, if not a collision over the eastern half of the peninsula. So, will need to monitor to see if higher PoPs would be justified and where. Little relief from building temperatures, with highs reaching the mid 90s over the interior by late weekend with lingering muggy conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 86 75 90 / 60 50 60 40 MCO 75 88 74 92 / 40 30 30 30 MLB 77 87 75 90 / 50 30 30 30 VRB 76 87 74 90 / 40 40 30 40 LEE 76 90 75 94 / 30 30 20 40 SFB 74 88 74 92 / 60 40 40 30 ORL 75 88 75 93 / 40 30 30 30 FPR 76 87 73 90 / 40 40 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ UPDATE...Heil AVIATION...Heil DECISION SUPPORT...Sedlock