618
FXUS62 KMLB 220609
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
209 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VCSH at LEE/DAB early this morning, diminishing around 07/08Z.
Brief MVFR CIGs have been observed at MCO/ISM with low confidence
in MVFR prevailing. However, TEMPOs may be needed. Otherwise,
prevailing VFR is forecast outside of convection. South to
southeast flow becomes onshore into the afternoon with the
development of the east coast sea breeze. VCSH included at the
coastal terminals as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland.
VCTS is mentioned at the inland terminals as the sea breeze moves
westward and coverage increases along a sea breeze collision. Will
reevaluate if thunder is needed along the coast with the next TAF
package issuance.

&&

.UPDATE... (Through Saturday)
Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Rich tropical moisture remains overhead through the weekend,
  sparking scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms,
  especially in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a
  Marginal Risk for locally excessive rainfall.

- High temperatures ranging from 88-94F, yielding max heat indices
  of 100-107F this weekend.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-70%) are also
  expected early to mid next week.

Tonight... Downpours are still percolating out there this evening,
particularly in a zone from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach, clipping
the western Orlando suburbs. This is near a surface trough axis
emanating from weak low pressure just NE of Jacksonville (Invest
92L). Deep moisture convergence is occurring in an uncapped
environment with PW`s ~ 2.25". Guidance isn`t handling this
activity particularly well, but the trend should be for lessening
coverage overnight. However, localized pockets of heavy rain and
isolated lightning strikes are possible in this area through
around midnight. South of Orlando to Titusville, shower chances
are quite low (20%) through the night. Overnight low temps will
remain balmy, in the mid 70s.

Saturday... Mid-level ridging over the ArkLaTex will act to hold
this axis of deeper moisture over the state through the weekend.
Only isolated morning showers are expected, however the latest HREF
guidance remains bullish on sea-breeze driven showers and storms
over the interior by afternoon and early evening. Tall, skinny
CAPE profiles and warm cloud depths to above 16 KFT will support
very efficient rain processes. Localized flooding of poor-draining
and urban areas is possible where storms recur. A marginal risk
(5%) of excessive rainfall is in place for the interior, and HREF
members indicate a 20-40% chance of 2"+ / 6HR rain potential.
This includes the Greater Orlando area. Storm chances range from
70% from Lake/Orange Co`s south to Lake O, decreasing to around
50% along the coast. Before the storms pop, highs will reach the
89-94F range, hottest near Greater Orlando to Clermont where heat
indices from 102-107F are expected due to the intense humidity.
While just below our "Heat Advisory" criteria, folks working or
enjoying the day outdoors should seek frequent water breaks in the
shade.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Overnight... Showers are ongoing to the north of Cape Canaveral,
and this trend should continue over the next few hours as we
reside just south of weak low pressure. Winds will remain SE from
8-15 KT, with seas 3-4 FT nearshore, 4-5 FT in the Gulf Stream.

Sat-Tue (previous discussion)... Improving boating conditions
this weekend into early next week, with south to southeast winds
remaining under 15 kts this weekend, then veering more SW early
next week. A sea breeze near the coast should develop each aftn,
however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater
daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially
early next week, with increasing chances for offshore- moving
convection each afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  91  75 /  60  50  70  30
MCO  92  75  91  75 /  70  50  70  30
MLB  89  75  89  75 /  50  30  60  30
VRB  90  75  90  74 /  50  30  50  30
LEE  93  76  92  76 /  70  60  70  30
SFB  92  75  92  75 /  60  50  70  30
ORL  92  76  92  76 /  70  50  70  30
FPR  90  74  90  73 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Law