170
FXUS62 KMLB 231744
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
144 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR forecast through the period. VCSH continues from MLB
southward for isolated onshore moving showers. East winds increase
to 10-12 kts with occasional gusts between 15-18 kts. Winds
diminish to around 5-8 kts overnight.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Current-Tonight...Once, again, this morning SCT "low-topped" showers
across the local coastal waters; mainly Cape southward pushing
toward and/or onto the coast. This trend will continue inland into
this afternoon, esp south of Melbourne where moisture is deepest. We
continue 10pct PoPs roughly Orlando northward and 20-40pct
southward. Mainly showery precip (H500 only -3C), though cannot rule
out a lightning storm or two. Activity will diminish or push into
WCFL for the most part by early in the evening, but we still retain
a small PoP along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts overnight. Broad mid-
level ridging across the GoMex and FL peninsula will promote
subsidence aloft over the next 24 hours across the region. Weak
surface ridging has pushed off of the Carolina coast into the
western Atlc and will continue to weaken. ENE/E winds today
increasing to 10-15 mph (15-20 mph along coast) with higher gusts
likely. Onshore winds (E/ESE) become light during the evening and
overnight. Highs in the U80s with a few L90s possible well into the
interior. Lows in the L-M70s, with U70s along the immediate
Space/Treasure coasts and conditions remaining muggy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Today-Tue...High pressure will slowly move offshore the eastern
seaboard early this week. Moderate east flow will will occur
today, with a slight increase on Tue but remaining below any
headlines. Scattered showers and isolated storms will occur today
from the Cape southward with lower coverage on Tue as drier air
filters down from the north. Seas 3-4 feet today (occasionally 5
feet) building 4-5 ft Tue.

Wed-Fri...A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop over the
northwest Caribbean in the next 48 hours and move north into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast
to deteriorate further Wednesday into Thursday as southeast winds
increase 20 knots Wed and 25 knots Thu with seas building 7-9 feet
by Thursday. Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn. Deep
moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers
and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri
and decrease 15-20 knots wit seas subsiding below 5 feet along the
coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 feet
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  76  89 /   0   0   0  30
MCO  74  91  76  90 /   0   0   0  50
MLB  77  89  79  89 /   0   0  10  40
VRB  76  89  78  89 /   0  10  20  50
LEE  73  92  76  90 /   0   0   0  40
SFB  73  91  75  89 /   0   0   0  40
ORL  74  92  76  90 /   0   0   0  50
FPR  75  89  78  89 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law