810
FXUS62 KMLB 060112
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
912 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Current-Tonight...WDLY SCT convection this evening N/W of I-4.
Activity on a diminishing trend now, but there could be some ISOLD
showers/storms along (and west of) the Kissimmee River into mid-late
evening as the HRRR suggests but low confidence here. Any remaining
storm threats will be occasional lightning strikes, brief gusty
winds and locally heavy downpours. Conditions otherwise dry
overnight. Onshore flow will become light/variable later this
evening and overnight. Conditions remain warm and humid with
eventual mins in the U60s to L-M70s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Sea breeze collision across Lake County this evening. We`ll see
if any convection can muster across the interior/I-4 corridor,
aside from some ongoing activity north of KLEE early on. Will add
TEMPO groups if necessary on top of some "Vicinity" wording
already in place. Onshore winds will gradually diminish and become
light and variable later this evening into the overnight.
Predominant offshore winds early Thu with a slow push inland of
the sea breeze closer towards the coast. Higher confidence in
lightning storms Thu afternoon with increased moisture and
approaching shortwave, though much of this activity will occur
beyond 06/18Z. Westerly steering flow will allow for higher
coverage across the eastern peninsula.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure will move farther seaward late week, ahead of a
series of weak cool fronts. Minimal PoPs today and tonight over
the Atlantic waters will increase Thursday into Thursday evening,
as an upper level trough crosses the area. A few storms Thursday
could be strong to marginally severe. While daily shower and
lightning storm chances will continue through the weekend, PoPs
decrease to around 20-30% or less for much of the area (~40% for
the Treasure Coast waters Friday). By next weekend, a pattern
change looks to bring much higher chances for showers and storms.

Outside of convection, onshore flow breaks down into tonight as
the ridge axis shifts south of the local waters. Prevailing
offshore winds in the morning hours will back southerly to
southeasterly each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds
will remain under 15kts through Saturday, but are forecast to
increase to around 15kts Sunday and Monday, especially over the
waters south of Cape Canaveral. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions will persist
into this weekend, despite high pressure moving farther seaward
into the western Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorm chances remain
modest today, but will increase Thursday, as onshore flow breaks
down and the sea breeze collision occurs over the eastern half
of the peninsula Thursday afternoon. However, while the chance
for precipitation will increase, widespread wetting rainfall does
not appear likely. In addition to an increase in lightning strikes,
this will keep fire weather conditions very sensitive. Into the
weekend, rain chances will once again become limited. But, a
pattern change, with much higher coverage of showers and storms,
looks increasingly likely next week. Some storms Thursday could
be strong, with gusty winds and hail.

Above normal temperatures will keep min RH values between 40-45%
for much of the area through Friday. Then, drier air this weekend
is forecast to lead to near-critical to critical RH, with min RH
falling to as low as 30-35% over the interior. High temperatures
will reach the upper 90s into the weekend, with some daily
record temperatures possible. Heat indices will be in the 100-107
degree range. Very good to excellent dispersion is forecast
Thursday and Friday, with control issues likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  94  73  95 /  10  40  20  30
MCO  75  97  74  96 /  20  40  20  30
MLB  74  93  73  94 /  10  50  30  30
VRB  73  94  72  95 /  10  60  40  30
LEE  75  96  75  95 /  20  30  10  30
SFB  74  98  74  97 /  20  40  20  30
ORL  76  97  76  96 /  20  40  20  30
FPR  73  94  72  95 /  10  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Sedlock