421
FXUS62 KMLB 051130
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
730 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions should largely prevail today into tonight. However,
there will be the potential for isolated to scattered showers and
storms, which may produce tempo IFR/MVFR conditions, mainly into
the afternoon and evening as sea breeze moves inland. Greatest
potential for storms continues to be inland of the Treasure Coast
this afternoon as sea breeze interacts with the Lake Okeechobee
breeze, and then across Lake County toward sunset where the sea
breeze collision is favored. Any storms that form where the sea
breeze boundaries collide will have the potential to shift back
toward the I-4 corridor this evening before this activity
diminishes. With rain chances remaining relatively low, have
continued to limit any mention of this activity to VCSH, except
VCTS at KLEE.

Light E/SE winds around 5-7 knots will become easterly around 10-13
knots with the inland moving sea breeze boundary this afternoon.
Winds then again diminish through late evening and overnight to 5
knots or less as they veer to the south.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Key Messages:

- Fire sensitive conditions continue with a moderate drought

- Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms Thursday

- Temperatures rise to near records late week with Heat Index
  values in the 100 to 110 degree range

Currently-Today... High pressure centered to the northeast of
Florida over the western Atlantic continues to be the main weather
influence over east central Florida. Local radar imagery shows
isolated showers over the Brevard and Treasure Coast waters.
Isolated showers and lighting storms are forecast to develop and
move onshore along the Treasure Coast into this afternoon (PoPs
~20-30%). Most of east central Florida is forecast to stay dry
again today with the greatest forcing remaining to the west of
east central Florida, although a weak sea breeze collision is
possible over Lake county, as well as weak boundary collisions
between outflow from previous storms and the sea breeze late this
afternoon. Isolated showers and a few lighting strikes are
possible (PoPs ~ 20-30%) over the western interior and the
Treasure Coast into this afternoon and early evening. Shower and
storm chances decrease into the late evening. East winds will
increase into the afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts up to 20-25mph.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast with
heat index values at 95 to 104 degrees under partly cloudy skies.

Tonight... Dry weather is forecast overnight with the exception
of isolated showers and lighting storms possible (PoPs ~20%) over
the local Atlantic. Winds will become light and veer offshore.
Skies are expected to become mostly clear to the north of Lake
Kissimmee to Melbourne and partly cloudy to the south. Above
normal low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Thursday-Friday... Showers and storm chances increase Thursday
afternoon ahead of a shortwave trough that`s expected to track
over east central Florida into the evening hours. The 00Z guidance
has come in stronger than previous model runs with SFC/MU CAPE
increasing to 3,000-4,000 J/kg and ML CAPE at 1,500-2,000 J/kg,
coupled with 500mb temperatures at -8 to -10C, 40-60kts of 0-6km
shear, 7.0+ C/km mid level lapse rates, and SHIP ~0.5-1.5. The
aforementioned parameters are supportive of isolated strong to
severe storms capable of hail to 1" in diameter (5% risk).
Guidance continues to show less than impressive 850mb and upper
level winds so the strong wind threat is less certain. However,
isolated storms will have the potential to produce wind gusts to
40-50mph. For this reason, the SPC has placed a Marginal Risk for
severe storms over areas to the southeast of I-4. Scattered to
numerous lighting storms will also be capable of frequent lighting
strikes and moderate to brief heavy rainfall at times. The main
threat for severe storms will be to the south of I-4 from 4-10pm
with shower and storm chances pushing offshore into the overnight
hours.

The NBM has stayed persistent in showing much higher PoPs than
MOS and global models Friday so they have been reduce
significantly again with isolated showers and lightning storms
forecast (PoPs ~30%). Near record high temperatures are forecast
with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the
100-110 degree range. Above normal to near record highs are
forecast Thursday with afternoon temperatures in the low to upper
90s and heat index values in the 100-108 degree range. Highs in
the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 100-110 degree
range are forecast Friday. Lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s are
expected.

Saturday-Tuesday... East central Florida is expected to stay
mostly dry through the weekend with isolated showers and lighting
storms forecast each afternoon through the weekend with the
greatest chance for showers and storms over the Treasure Coast to
Okeechobee county. Offshore flow will persist Saturday. Diurnally
sea breeze driven isolated to scattered showers and lighting
storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon Saturday and
Sunday as winds veer onshore near the coast and slightly west of
I-95.

The forecast becomes uncertain into next week with guidance
showing a few potential different scenarios. However, ensembles
indicate that the most likely scenario is a major shortwave
trough tracking over the Southeastern US with increasing shower
and lightning storm chances (PoPs ~40-60% Monday and 50-80%
Tuesday) over east central Florida. Afternoon highs are forecast
to reach the low to upper 90s through Monday with slightly lower
temperatures Tuesday. Heat index values in the 98-107 degree range
are forecast. Low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Currently-Today... Favorable boating conditions outside of
lightning storms are forecast. East winds will increase into the
afternoon at 8-14kts and then veer south-southwest overnight.
Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast through
tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 1-3ft.

Thursday-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated showers and
lightning storms are forecast into the afternoon and evening
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
lighting storms are forecast Thursday afternoon. Isolated storms
will be capable of frequent cloud to water lighting strikes, wind
gusts to 40-50mph, and hail 1" in diameter. West to southwest
winds are expected to back onshore into Thursday afternoon at
10-15kts before veering offshore into the evening and overnight
hours. Offshore winds are expected to veer south-southeast each
afternoon through the weekend at around 10-15kts. Seas are
forecast to build to 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  94  72 /  10  10  60  20
MCO  94  75  96  74 /  20  20  70  20
MLB  89  74  92  73 /  10  10  70  30
VRB  90  73  93  72 /  30  10  80  30
LEE  95  75  95  75 /  30  30  40  20
SFB  94  74  97  74 /  20  20  70  20
ORL  95  75  97  75 /  20  20  70  20
FPR  90  73  93  72 /  30  10  80  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich