066
FXUS62 KMLB 030549
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
149 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mostly VFR through today into tonight. Ridge axis of high
pressure over the west Atlantic will remain north of central FL,
keeping an onshore flow across the region. A few showers possible
along the Treasure Coast through early this morning. Then, isolated
to scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible along
the inland moving sea breeze boundary, but greatest potential for
rain looks to exist with sea breeze collision toward the western
side of the FL peninsula later in the afternoon and toward sunset.
Therefore, rain chances remain rather low across east central FL.
Have limited any mention of this activity to VCSH or VCTS for
inland TAF sites and along the Treasure Coast. However, tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible should any convection develop
over or move across any TAF sites this afternoon.

Winds are forecast out of the east around 5-10 knots, increasing
to around 10-12 knots with the sea breeze boundary as it shifts
inland during the afternoon. Winds then diminish to 5 knots or
less overnight tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Made some adjustments to PoPs, generally bringing them down across
the board as guidance has backed off once again. A shower or two
from the western side of the peninsula could wander back this way
over the next hour or two, but so far the opposing easterly low
level and westerly mid-upper level flow has kept convection mostly
stationary well to our west, so chances are pretty low. Best
chance or showers and maybe even a storm overnight will be mainly
along the Treasure Coast between midnight and early Monday
morning. Onshore moving sprinkles and light showers remain
possible along the whole coast through morning, but odds favor
from the Cape south. Rest of the forecast remains on track for a
quiet night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure will drift farther into the western Atlantic
through mid-week, with the ridge axis forecast to extend towards
the Florida peninsula through late week. A weak cool front is
forecast to approach the area Friday into Friday night, though
this feature will likely stall before making it to east central
Florida. Thus, boating conditions will continue to improve into
Monday, with onshore flow remaining under 15kts through Wednesday.
By Thursday, winds veer southeasterly, as the ridge axis moves
southward, with winds then veering southerly on Friday. Seas 3-4ft
tonight becoming 2-3ft through the remainder of the period. Daily
shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast, with some activity
pushing offshore in the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  70  88  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  70  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  87  73  88  74 /  10  20  30  30
VRB  87  71  88  72 /  20  20  30  30
LEE  91  71  93  73 /  30  10  20  10
SFB  90  70  92  72 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  90  72  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  87  70  88  72 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich