797
FXUS62 KMLB 170140
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A line of scattered showers and isolated lightning storms that
developed along boundary collisions near the stalled frontal
boundary extends from Polk County into Osceola, Brevard, and
northern Indian River Counties. While individual cells are
generally moving to the east-southeast at 15-20 mph, the line
itself is mostly stationary, and there is a small chance for
storms or heavy showers to get hung up on a boundary and produce
locally high rainfall amounts. Occasional to frequent cloud to
ground lightning and gusts to 40 mph will also be possible. In
addition, with modest bulk shear and strong surface convergence
along outflow boundaries, a funnel cloud or even a waterspout
cannot be ruled out. HRRR seems to be handling this activity the
best, albeit 2-4 hours to slow, so generally used that guidance
with temporal correction to make some adjustments to forecast
PoPs. Expect this activity to push offshore over the next few
hours, with maybe a very slight shift to the south.

Otherwise, no significant changes to a mostly quiet overnight
forecast. Only other weather concern continues to be patchy fog
development across the interior in the early morning hours. Winds
light northeasterly to easterly, becoming variable/calm at times,
under mostly cloud skies, with overnight lows in the L-M70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the evening and first half of the
night. A line of TSRA/SHRA has developed on boundary collisions
from west to south of KMLB, which could propagate southeastward
towards KVRB-KSUA the next several hours, so added VCTS generously
through 07Z-08Z at these terminals. Dry conditions at the
northern terminals, but the frontal boundary stalled across CFL
could help produce more MVFR- IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS impacts,
though only KLEE has chances high enough for reductions in the
TAFs. Any stratus or fog that develops should clear by 14Z-15Z,
with a typical diurnal seabreeze pattern and near normal afternoon
SHRA/TSRA chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue over the
coastal waters from elevated swells from PTC8. Will allow the
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) over the nearshore waters, north of
Sebastian Inlet to drop off early at 4 PM, as seas at buoys
41009/41070 have remained around 6 feet. However, lingering seas
up to 7-8 feet are still forecast offshore, so will maintain SCA
headlines through late tonight for the 20-60nm offshore zones.
Nearshore, will keep exercise caution headlines for seas up to 6
feet. Winds will be relatively light and somewhat variable with
weak frontal boundary across the area, and speeds will generally
range around 5-10 knots.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible
over the waters.

Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas subside
Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Variable
winds continue into late week while remaining 10 kts or less.
Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  91  73  92 /  20  50  10  50
MLB  76  90  74  90 /  40  50  40  50
VRB  76  90  73  91 /  30  50  40  50
LEE  73  90  73  91 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  73  90  73  91 /  20  50  10  50
ORL  75  91  74  92 /  20  50  10  50
FPR  76  90  73  90 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley