463
FXUS62 KMLB 160543
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
143 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Will continue to monitor thru this early morning for any MVFR
CIGs/VSBYs with potential stratus/fog development. Light morning
flow will gradually transition onshore along the coast in the
afternoon. This NNE/NE flow will move into the interior by late in
the day or early evening. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms
are forecast in the afternoon/early evening, but not confident in
any TEMPO groups. Will handle with "Vicinity" wording for now.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Only a couple showers left out there across Ormond Beach and near
Kissimmee. Shower chances become <20% all areas overnight. Quite
a bit of thin cirrus floating by, so while some patchy fog could
still occur - think it will be on a more isolated basis and mainly
over the southern portions of the area (Treasure
Coast/Okeechobee/So. Osceola). Lows are on track to drop into the
low/mid 70s.

The 16/23Z evening XMR sounding exhibited significant dry air
from H7 to H5, resulting in a PW of 1.62". This ribbon of drier
air will remain nearby on Monday, sandwiched between deeper
moisture both over N & So Fla. Thus, storm chances tomorrow will
be lowest (30%) from Melbourne to Ft Pierce, and relatively
higher both north and south of there (40-50%).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Tonight...Swell from low pressure off the South Carolina coast
will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions across the
coastal waters with sea building up to 6-8 feet. Small craft
should exercise caution for seas up to 6 feet nearshore, while a
Small Craft Advisory will expand to include the entire offshore
waters into tonight for seas up to 7-8 feet. Winds will be light
out the W/NW north of the Cape and W/SW to the south.

Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Scattered
showers and lightning storms will remain in the forecast. Mariners
are still reminded to keep an eye to the sky westward as the
storm steering flow will continue to be WRLY, which will bring
offshore moving showers and storms across the local waters. There
should be ECSB formation each day as light onshore winds develop
each afternoon.

Winds speeds AOB 15 kts (outside of convection) through this
week. Wave heights will remain elevated up to 5-6 feet nearshore
and up to 6-8 feet offshore into Monday, with Small Craft Advisory
continuing offshore Monday and Monday evening. Seas will
gradually subside into Monday overnight with values falling to 4-6
feet Tuesday and then to 3-4 feet into midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  90  73 /  40  20  40  20
MCO  90  75  92  75 /  40  20  50  10
MLB  90  76  90  75 /  20  20  40  30
VRB  92  75  90  74 /  20  20  50  40
LEE  89  73  90  74 /  40  20  30  10
SFB  89  73  91  74 /  50  20  50  10
ORL  90  75  92  75 /  50  20  50  10
FPR  92  75  90  73 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Sedlock