886
FXUS62 KMLB 231739
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
139 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Another afternoon of showers and storms are forecast across east
central Florida, particularly across the interior terminals and
MLB northward along the coast. VCTS ongoing with TEMPOs from
18-23Z today, with MVFR VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Activity will
begin to diminish after 00Z, with quiet conditions across the
Treasure Coast terminals and lingering VCSH at the remaining
coastal and interior terminals through 06Z. ESE winds this
afternoon will become southerly and variable overnight. Winds pick
back up out of the SW across the interior and at DAB and TIX,
with the sea breeze developing around 15Z from MLB southward,
making winds easterly. VCSH will be possible along the sea breeze
from MLB southward after 15Z, with increasing shower and storm
coverage forecast as the ECSB progresses inland tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Current KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and isolated
lightning storms over the local Atlantic. Current temperatures
are in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
This morning`s 10Z XMR skew-t sounding indicates ample moisture
in place with a PWAT values of 2.10", as well as mid and low RH at
80%, in addition to moderate instability with surface CAPE at
2507 J/kg and weak 0-6km shear at 12kts. There`s less certainty
in today`s forecast with differences in how much coverage of
showers and lightning storms there will be into this afternoon.
The HRRR continues to be inconsistent indicating little convection
developing to scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
this afternoon. However, the previously mentioned weather
parameters and a similar pattern to yesterday is likely to
continue above normal coverage of showers and lightning storms
this afternoon.

Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are
forecast to develop into this afternoon as boundary collisions
occur between the east coast sea breeze and the weaker west coast
sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms with the
greatest chance for showers and storms along and west of I-4, as
well as the western interior (PoPs ~ 60-70%). Weak wind fields
will result in slow moving storms with locally heavy rainfall
(1-3" in a short period of time). Additionally, lightning storms
will have the potential to produce wind gusts up to 30-35mph and
occasional to frequent lightning strikes. South to southeast
winds are forecast this afternoon at 5-15mph as the east coast sea
breeze moves inland into this afternoon with the exception of the
western interior where a winds will be south-southwest into this
afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat
index values in the 98-107 degree range are forecast under partly
cloudy to partly sunny skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote
south to southeast winds across the local waters. Seas of 3 ft
gradually subside to 2 ft into Monday night. Scattered to numerous
lightning storms are forecast.

Tuesday-Thursday...Light southwest to west flow develops over the
local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each
afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas
remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well
offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  93  76  93 /  40  70  20  60
MCO  74  93  76  92 /  50  70  20  70
MLB  74  91  75  91 /  40  70  30  70
VRB  74  90  75  91 /  40  60  20  60
LEE  76  94  77  94 /  40  70  20  70
SFB  75  94  76  94 /  40  70  20  70
ORL  75  93  77  93 /  40  70  20  70
FPR  73  90  74  91 /  40  70  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen