Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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922 FXUS62 KMLB 211422 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1015 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 938 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the northeast Florida coast continues to move west-northwest towards the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. Conditions remain mostly favorable (50%) for weak development with weak deep layer shear and anomalously warm waters in place over the southwest Atlantic. However,the low is expected to continue to move to the north of central Florida with the same impacts expected for east central Florida regardless of development. Current radar imagery shows scattered showers over the local Atlantic and isolated showers over areas north-northwest of Titusville. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered lighting storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and as showers/storms move onshore and increase in coverage with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland. The main hazards associated with stronger lightning storms that develop are expected to be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-40mph, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast with heat index values in the mid 90s to 105 degrees under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 644 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 MVFR CIGs are forecast to prevail across the northern terminals through late morning. VCSH is mentioned from MLB northward this morning with prevailing -SHRA at LEE/DAB as low pressure continues to approach the Florida coastline from the Atlantic. Isolated storms are forecast across the north into the afternoon and VCTS is mentioned at MCO/ISM/TIX/MLB. Variable winds throughout the morning become east into the afternoon increasing to around 8-12 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Today...A tropical disturbance is forecast to remain north of the waters, reaching the FL/GA border later today. As the trough axis passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside below 7 feet offshore by afternoon. A Small craft advisory remains in effect this morning for the Volusia waters and offshore Brevard with Caution for most of the other marine zones. Ongoing scattered showers with a few embedded lightning storms will persist this morning near and north of Cape Canaveral then should decrease in coverage. But additional late day storms over land may reach the Volusia/north Brevard coast toward sunset. Sat-Tue...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts this weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze near the coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore- moving convection each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 76 91 75 / 70 30 60 60 MCO 91 77 92 76 / 50 30 60 50 MLB 89 77 90 76 / 30 30 60 60 VRB 91 76 90 75 / 30 30 60 40 LEE 89 77 94 76 / 60 30 60 50 SFB 89 76 92 75 / 50 30 60 50 ORL 90 77 92 76 / 50 30 60 50 FPR 91 76 90 75 / 30 30 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ141. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550- 570- 572. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Law