Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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116 FXUS62 KMLB 221242 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 842 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 839 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Current-Tonight...Scattered "low-topped" showers across the Atlc are beginning to move onto the coast and points further inland, with this trend continuing this morning into early afternoon. A diffuse sea breeze will develop and push inland during the day. H500 temps - 3C to -4C will limit instability and lightning storm potential today. We carry 20-30pct PoPs over land. Activity will diminish or push into WCFL for the most part by early in the evening, but we still retain a small PoP along the Space/Treasure coasts overnight. Mid-level ridging along the Texas coast will continue to advance across the GoMex and FL peninsula over the next 24 hours providing subsidence aloft across the region. Weak surface ridging exists to the north. NE winds today increasing to 10-15 mph with higher gusts likely. Onshore winds become light during the evening. Highs in the U80s with a few L90s possible well into the interior. Lows in the L-M70s, perhaps a few U70s along the immediate coast, with conditions remaining muggy. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 730 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Will continue with VCSH today as lightning storm chances appear to be < 20%. VFR, except for near showers where brief categorical restrictions to MVFR/IFR occur. Lt/Vrb winds become NE 5-15 KT after 15Z, with gusts to 20 KT esp. along the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Today-Tuesday...High pressure over the Deep South today drifts eastward into the Atlantic via the Carolina coast through the period. Northeast winds today veer onshore through Tuesday. Winds 10-15kts each day, especially in the afternoon hours, as the sea breeze develops. Isolated to scattered lightning storms will decrease through early this week, though at least a 20% chance will linger over the Treasure Coast waters. Seas 3-4ft, with up to 5ft possible well offshore north of Cape Canaveral into this afternoon. Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 70% chance of formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico. Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system. While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to deteriorate into late week, as southeasterly winds increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast for any changes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 74 90 74 / 20 0 10 0 MCO 90 74 92 74 / 30 0 10 0 MLB 88 77 89 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 89 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 91 73 92 74 / 20 0 10 0 SFB 89 73 91 73 / 30 0 10 0 ORL 90 75 92 74 / 30 0 10 0 FPR 89 74 89 75 / 30 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Heil