Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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500 FXUS62 KMLB 081711 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 111 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 111 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR persists outside of convection through the afternoon and evening. A few storms develop this afternoon between 19Z-02Z. Highest coverage (30-50%) for the Treasure Coast terminals, with lesser confidence at MCO/Greater Orlando area (20-40%). TS TEMPOs necessary for Treasure Coast. Sea breeze already advancing from MLB to SUA, with ESE winds near the coastline. Greater Orlando will be more VRB or SW, 5-10 KT. There is a signal for patchy fog overnight, however with only a 20-30% chance of formation, have opted to keep out of TAFs and monitor latest guidance for future packages. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Update...A bit of an earlier start to showers and thunderstorms mainly across Southwest FL, although earlier a few cells in Palm Beach County were drifting closer to Martin County, prompting an update to PoPs, which have since dissipated. This early morning activity coincides with the presence of very moist air, with PW values surging over 2.00" south of Lake Okeechobee. A tight gradient is in place across the state, however, with values falling significantly just across the FL/GA border to near 0.70". This drier air is forecast to filter southward today which will aim to curb rain chances for areas north of I-4 this afternoon, but will also aid in temperatures climbing to near record values for these areas. Have maintained PoPs of 30% for the north, increasing southward to 60% in the vicinity of Lake O, due to the adequate moisture and also sea/lake breeze interactions today. Temps at 500 mb warmed 3 degrees to -6C compared to this time yesterday, suggesting that storms today may not be as strong, although the potential for gusty winds is still present with DCAPE of 1000J/kg. Frequent lightning strikes, heavy rain and gusty winds will be the threats this afternoon, mainly for the Kissimmee River basin towards Jupiter Inlet. Nearly all climate sites have record highs at risk today, especially for Orlando, Sanford and Leesburg, where the cooling effects of the sea breeze and afternoon storms may escape. Temps will approach very near to 100 degrees across the interior, with heat index readings soaring towards 105-107F. Therefore, today`s HeatRisk is moderate to major, meaning this level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. If outdoors, take frequent breaks from the sun in shaded or air conditioned spaces and remain well hydrated. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions outside of isolated storms are forecast with 1-2 ft seas and early W winds backing SE in the afternoon. Speeds increase to around 15 kt this evening and tonight before decreasing by sunrise Sunday. Isolated showers and lightning storms will tend to be focused from Cape Canaveral southward, where slightly greater moisture is present. Sunday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning storms increases from Monday-Tuesday onward. Seas 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 97 74 97 / 20 20 0 40 MCO 76 97 76 96 / 30 30 10 50 MLB 75 93 76 94 / 30 40 20 60 VRB 74 93 75 95 / 30 50 30 70 LEE 76 97 76 96 / 10 10 0 40 SFB 75 98 75 98 / 30 20 0 50 ORL 77 97 76 97 / 30 30 10 50 FPR 73 93 74 94 / 20 50 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Heil