Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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606 FXUS62 KMLB 200531 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 131 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 128 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Lower coverage of showers and storms is forecast Friday, with onshore flow through the period. VCSH included for MCO southward after 18Z, though the highest confidence in seeing convection near terminals will be along the Treasure Coast after around 16Z. VCTS included for FPR and SUA by 18Z, diminishing through 23Z. Coverage is forecast to be too low to include TEMPOs at this time, but this will need to be monitored. Winds increasing to around 10-12kts behind the sea breeze along the coast this afternoon. Otherwise, NE/E winds remaining 10kts or less. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An earlier start to diurnal convection today over land has led to an earlier end. However, there are a few convergent cloud lines seen on KMLB radar offshore Brevard and the Treasure coast as well which should become more active with convection overnight. Most of this convection should stay over the Atlc but will keep a small PoP along the coast from the Cape southward into early overnight. Light and variable winds will become light N/NW toward morning with min temps in the low to mid 70s. Skies will become mostly clear and there is a small chance for patchy fog in normally fog prone areas, including where heavy rains fell today (St Lucie county) and across north Lake/NW Volusia counties. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Now-Tonight...Seas will continue to fall into tonight, around 2-4 ft, as onshore flow becomes light and variable through daybreak Friday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to push over the waters through the evening and may last through the early overnight period. Locally higher wind gusts and seas are possible as a result of this activity. Friday-Monday...Generally favorable conditions are forecast through the weekend with poor boating conditions potentially returning by Sunday or early next week. Persistent northeasterly winds will increase each day with the highest gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon and evening hours. Seas 2-3 ft thru Saturday, increasing to 3-5 ft Sunday-Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 74 87 75 / 20 20 40 20 MCO 90 74 90 73 / 30 10 40 0 MLB 88 75 88 76 / 30 20 40 20 VRB 88 73 89 74 / 40 20 40 20 LEE 90 73 90 73 / 20 0 30 0 SFB 89 73 88 73 / 30 10 40 10 ORL 90 74 90 75 / 30 10 40 0 FPR 88 73 88 73 / 40 20 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Leahy