Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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239 FXUS62 KMLB 190241 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1041 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Offshore flow and strong heating allowed max temps to reach the mid 90s along the coast, good enough to break today`s record high at DAB (94F) and tie the record high at MLB (93F). Storms pushing E/SE from north FL hooked onto the east coast sea breeze boundary in coastal Volusia county and rode southward into north Brevard before pushing offshore. Enhanced helicities behind the sea breeze produced broadly rotating storms with tightening couplets prompting a tornado warning for southern Volusia. Storms were excessive lightning producers with large hail likely aloft but which mostly melted by the time they reached the sfc. Lightning storms over the Atlc will continue into the overnight with isolated showers and storms south of Orlando where outflow boundaries will be colliding. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 825 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Primary concern this eve is for ongoing strong storms INVOF KTIX with potential for sliding southward toward MLB. Lessening convective potential from VRB-SUA as well as MCO/SFB. Light SW flow overnight becoming NW 5-10 knots after sunrise, veering NE- ENE along the coast aft 17Z behind a sea breeze. Expect late day storms to focus again near the coast terminals on Thu. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Now-Tonight...Light onshore flow turns offshore tonight. Seas remain generally favorable, around 3-4 ft, outside of any isolated/scattered lightning storms that push offshore this evening. Thursday-Sunday...Another day of winds becoming onshore around 10 kt Thursday afternoon, with isolated/scattered showers possible by the late afternoon and evening (mainly south of Cape Canaveral). Seas decrease further, around 2-4 ft. A surface front traverses the local waters on Friday, settling across south Florida and the Florida Straits this weekend. Northeast winds increase persistently each day, especially in the afternoon hours, gusting as high as 15-20 kt by Sunday. Seas gradually build Saturday into Sunday as a result, up to 5 ft offshore by Sunday afternoon/night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 90 73 89 / 50 30 10 20 MCO 74 92 73 91 / 30 50 10 30 MLB 74 90 75 88 / 60 40 40 30 VRB 73 90 73 89 / 60 50 40 40 LEE 74 90 73 90 / 20 40 10 20 SFB 73 91 73 90 / 30 50 10 30 ORL 75 92 75 91 / 30 50 10 30 FPR 73 90 73 89 / 60 60 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Kelly