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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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600 FXUS62 KMLB 181336 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 936 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Isolated, very shallow marine showers continue to push toward the coast this morning with a few coming ashore. The 10z XMR sounding, GOES-derived PW and water vapor imagery, and latest RAP analysis reveal an impressive dry layer above 800mb. CAMs and medium range guidance suggest that a push of moisture will arrive this afternoon, supporting slightly greater coverage of showers and even an isolated storm nearer to the coast. Similar to the previous forecast, thunder chances will be maximized over the adjacent Atlantic waters, though some lightning strikes could occur near and east of I-95. The QPF remains near or less than an inch along the coast with the highest amounts focused from around Cape Canaveral south to the Treasure Coast. Local amounts up to 1.5" cannot be discounted. Based on morning temperature trends, highs today were nudged up by a degree, especially inland. Quick-hitting heavy downpours will briefly lower temperatures in any given location, though overall afternoon highs should push the mid/upper 80s to low 90s (inland). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A few showers pushing onshore this morning, with VCSH for the coast. Coverage of showers is forecast to increase this afternoon and into tonight, with -SHRA included at all TAF sites by this evening. Some MVFR reductions will be possible, especially from MLB southward, from around 19-21Z. Although, this may need to be adjusted, as CAMs don`t always handle onshore-moving showers well. TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAF. Outside of any showers, breezy to windy conditions are forecast, with sustained winds up to 15-20kts this afternoon and gusts 25-30kts. Winds will decrease slightly after sunset, but remain elevated, especially along the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 512 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Today-Tonight (modified previous)...Poor to hazardous boating conditions with breezy to windy onshore flow through tonight. Wind speeds generally 15-20 KT across all the waters, increasing to 20-25 KT this afternoon across all the waters. Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the offshore waters, expanding to the nearshore waters this afternoon. Seas will be increasing to 5-8ft in the afternoon, before decreasing slightly overnight to 4-7ft. Scattered showers and lightning storms are possible this afternoon and into the evening. Wednesday-Saturday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected to continue through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow will persist through the period , with winds generally 15-20 KT in the nearshore waters, and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters through Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late week and into the weekend. Seas 6-8ft on Wednesday will increase to 7-10 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft, and 3-4ft on Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Atlantic waters on Wednesday, and wil likely be extended in time through at least Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 76 87 75 / 30 30 50 50 MCO 89 76 88 76 / 40 30 50 30 MLB 88 77 87 77 / 50 50 60 60 VRB 88 76 88 76 / 40 50 60 60 LEE 91 77 91 75 / 30 30 40 20 SFB 89 75 89 75 / 30 30 50 40 ORL 90 76 89 76 / 40 30 50 30 FPR 88 76 87 75 / 40 40 60 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Leahy