170
FXUS62 KMLB 241233
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
833 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Previous Key Messages:

- Broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean has a high
  chance (100%) for tropical development as it lifts north into
  the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week and strengthens.

- While it is too early to describe exact impacts to east central
  Florida, heavy rain and winds are becoming an increasing
  concern.

- A plume of deep moisture may remain behind and keep a threat for
  heavy rainfall into the weekend.

Current-Tonight...Tight moisture gradient has pushed further south
with highest PWATs 1.60-1.80 inches across Okeechobee, St. Lucie and
Martin counties. KMLB 88D only shows some ISOLD shower activity
moving into southern Martin County and the adjacent local coastal
waters. Areas northward only stand a 10pct chance or less of seeing
any precip. The temp at H500 on the KXMR morning sounding was a
sultry -2.6C. Mid-level high pressure across the area is responsible
for limiting instability/providing subsidence. Again, mainly dry
over land tonight, except for a small PoP across St. Lucie and
Martin counties and the adjacent coastal waters of the Treasure
Coast. E/ESE winds today increasing to 10-15 mph (15-20 mph along
coast) with higher gusts in play. Wind speeds diminish to 5-10 mph
over the interior this evening, remaining elevated 10-15 mph along
the immediate coast. Highs in the U80s along the coast with near 90F
to L90s into the interior. Lows in the M-U70s, with around 80F at
the immediate coast and barrier islands and conditions remaining
muggy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 729 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Continued tranquil flying conditions today with the only VCSH
mention at SUA. TS probabilities are <20% at all sites. E winds
increase to 10-15 KT with G15-20 KT between 15Z and 00Z. VFR
prevails.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate beyond the TAF period as
moisture increases ahead of PTC #9, leading to showers/storms
becoming likely by later Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Today...Weak surface high pressure continues to drift further
into the western Atlc. Moderate E/ESE flow near 15 knots will
produce choppy seas of 3 to 4 feet with winds increasing 14-18
kts tonight. Will likely need a Caution headline tonight south of
the Cape. Lower coverage of showers today as drier air filters
down from the north. Seas 3-4 feet today-tonight building 4-5 ft
Tue and up to 6 ft Tonight in the Gulf Stream Cape southward.

Wed-Sat...Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to continue
to develop and strengthen over the northwest Caribbean in the
next 24 hours, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid
week. Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate further Wed
into Thu as southeast winds increase 20 kts Wed and 25+ kts Wed
overnight into Thu with seas building 7-10 ft (peaking at 12 ft
offshore Volusia and Brevard Thu aftn/night). At least Small
Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn but it is possible
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will become necessary for much
of the Atlc coastal waters. Deep moisture lifting northward will
support a high coverage of showers and storms beginning late Wed
into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri and decrease 15-20 kts with
seas subsiding below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore
component but remaining 6-7 ft offshore. Flow turns SW on Sat and
decreases below 15 knots and this will allow seas to fall below 5
feet offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  77  89  78 /   0   0  40  60
MCO  92  76  90  78 /   0   0  60  60
MLB  89  79  89  79 /   0  10  60  70
VRB  89  78  89  79 /  10  10  70  70
LEE  93  75  90  76 /   0   0  50  60
SFB  91  76  89  77 /   0   0  60  60
ORL  92  77  90  78 /   0   0  60  60
FPR  89  78  88  78 /  20  20  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ044>046-053-144.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Heil