888
FXUS62 KMLB 230921
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
521 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean has a high
  chance (90%) for tropical development as it lifts north into
  the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week and strengthens.

- While it is too early to describe exact impacts to east central
  Florida, heavy rain is becoming an increasing concern.

- A plume of deep moisture may remain behind and keep a threat for
  heavy rainfall into the weekend.

Today-Tue...High pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard today
will shift east on Tue. This will maintain an onshore (E to E/SE)
flow, becoming breezy on Tue (15-20 mph) esp along the coast. A
band of higher moisture across the southern half of FA today will
provide the focus for isolated to scattered showers (20-40
percent). Cannot rule out occasional lightning strikes but warm
temps aloft (-3C to -4C) and unimpressive lapse rates will limit
thunder chances. Drier air will filter south and southwest across
more of the area Tue and further limit rain chances with only a 20
PoP is forecast across Okeechobee to the Treasure coast. Max temps
will a little above seasonal norms reaching the lower 90s across
the interior today and possibly a few mid 90s on Tue in Lake
county. Upper 80s/near 90 along the coast.

Wed-Sun...Reliable model guidance continues to forecast a tropical
cyclone developing in the NW Caribbean and lifting north into the
SE Gulf of Mexico while strengthening Wed-Thu. No trackable
feature exists yet so confidence on size, intensity and forecast
track is low. NHC has scheduled an Air Force recon mission to
investigate the disturbance at 2pm today. Depending on the data it
gathers, it is possible NHC may initiate PTC (potential tropical
cyclone) advisories later today.

The GFS and ECMWF ensembles remain consistent showing a upper
ridge over the SW Atlc and and a developing cut-off low over MO/AR
that steers this system north to north northeast up thru the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the NE gulf coast later this
week. While it is too early to describe specific impacts for EC
FL, heavy rainfall is becoming an increasing concern. Other
hazards such as tornadoes and strong winds may also come into
play.

Models show a brief dry slot across the area Thu night/early Fri
then a plume of deep moisture redevelops over the FL peninsula
late Fri into the weekend long after the tropical system has
departed. This would produce high rain chances and a continued
threat for heavy rainfall, on ground that may be largely
saturated.

We are in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov
for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane
preparedness kits and plans.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Today-Tue...High pressure will slowly move offshore the eastern
seaboard early this week. Moderate east flow will will occur
today, with a slight increase on Tue but remaining below any
headlines. Scattered showers and isolated storms will occur today
from the Cape southward with lower coverage on Tue as drier air
filters down from the north. Seas 3-4 feet today (occasionally 5
feet) building 4-5 ft Tue.

Wed-Fri...A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop over the
northwest Caribbean in the next 48 hours and move north into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast
to deteriorate further Wednesday into Thursday as southeast winds
increase 20 knots Wed and 25 knots Thu with seas building 7-9 feet
by Thursday. Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn. Deep
moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers
and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri
and decrease 15-20 knots wit seas subsiding below 5 feet along the
coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 feet
offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Onshore-moving showers will continue to affect MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA
overnight through the morning hours before shifting to only the
Treasure Coast terminals by afternoon. Elsewhere, prevailing dry
conditions and VFR. Light NNE winds steadily veer toward the E
through the day. A few gusts 12-18 KT in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  75  90  76 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  91  74  92  76 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  89  78  89  79 /  20   0  10  10
VRB  89  76  90  78 /  30  10  20  20
LEE  92  73  93  76 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  91  73  91  76 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  92  75  92  76 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  89  76  89  78 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Heil