167
FXUS62 KMLB 260137
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
937 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Forecast held up very well this afternoon and evening, with no
significant changes needed. Storms stayed west enough of Kennedy
Space Center for the GOES-U rocket launch to sneak out just before
anvil moved in aloft. Slow moving and stationary storms produced
widespread rainfall amounts 1-2" and locally high amounts 3-5"
along a fairly contiguous band from Harmony to Orange City, the
latter of which also saw the strongest storm of the day that
briefly produced nickel sized hail. Locally high rainfall amounts
up to 3" were also seen from near Kenansville to near Country Hill
Estates. A couple stubborn storms near Leesburg and area of debris
showers linger on early tonight, but should all dissipate by
midnight. A quiet rest of the night is forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 833 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. TS INVOF most
inland terminals this evening on a downward trend and should
dissipate by around 02Z. Debris -SH could linger a few hours
later, especially KTIX-KSUA, but should remain VFR and don`t even
have VCSH mentioned in some cases. Generally quiet overnight.
Little bit of uncertainty how the sea breezes and TS will evolve
Wednesday. Light westerly flow will push the WCSB quickly across
the peninsula while holding the ECSB near the I-95 corridor. How
much TS develops along the WCSB in the late morning-afternoon will
have a significant impact on timing of TS at the inland terminals,
which could be as early 17Z. Less TS on the WCSB would keep
timing closer to the currently advertised 19Z VCTS. TS develops on
the ECSB INVOF the coastal terminals around 18Z, eventually
getting overrun by inland storms with all this activity pushing
offshore in the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will continue to shift
slightly south and eastward. SW flow today has shifted SE/S this
afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW
overnight. Wind speeds will remain light, with 10 KT or less. Seas
will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore
waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this
afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Wednesday-Sunday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Light offshore
flow shifts SE/S each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
develops. Background flow then becomes southerly on Saturday and
Sunday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze in the
afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally 10 KT
or less, increasing slightly on Sunday with speeds around 10 KT.
Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft across the
far offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered
lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  94 /  30  70  40  60
MCO  75  93  77  93 /  50  70  30  60
MLB  75  92  75  93 /  30  70  40  60
VRB  74  91  74  93 /  40  70  40  60
LEE  76  93  77  93 /  40  70  30  60
SFB  76  93  76  94 /  50  70  30  60
ORL  76  93  77  94 /  50  70  30  60
FPR  74  91  74  93 /  40  70  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley