863
FXUS62 KMLB 201431
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1031 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A few sprinkles or passing isolated showers remain possible
through the morning, though activity continuing into the afternoon
remains uncertain. Most locations look to remain dry until a more
notable push of moisture arrives this evening and tonight across
the area, in association with a tropical disturbance northeast of
the Bahamas. The NHC nudged the probability of development for
this disturbance to 40% earlier this morning, though if anything
becomes of it, the local impacts remain very similar to previous
forecasts. Breezy to gusty conditions will persist through this
evening, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. A general
decrease in wind speeds is expected after midnight. PoPs were
updated to reflect the latest hi-res guidance and may still be a
bit generous. A slight chance to chance of showers arrives around
sunset and later from the east, with the highest chance of
rainfall along the Volusia and northern Brevard County coast.

Temperatures remain on track to reach the 80s/low 90s (inland)
this afternoon. A High Surf Advisory and high risk of rip currents
remain at area beaches, so beachgoers are encouraged to stay out
of the water.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Onshore winds become breezy today with wind gusts between 20-25
kts at all terminals. Lingering VCSH is forecast to diminish by
14Z with mostly dry conditions into the afternoon. A mention of
precip returns this evening into tonight as an area of low
pressure approaches from the Atlantic. Winds veer overnight as the
low pressure feature moves inland across northeast Florida. VFR
conditions are currently forecast but will monitor the potential
for MVFR CIGs and VIS across the north tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Today-Friday (modified previous)...Breezy and gusty winds linger
today into tonight, as Invest 92L, current northeast of the
Bahamas, moves towards the local waters. Winds 15-20kts this
afternoon veering northeastward, then decreasing after midnight to
around 10-15kts. By Friday morning, winds are forecast to be
southeasterly. Seas 6-9ft linger into tonight, before subsiding
through the day on Friday. Seas forecast around 4-6ft by Friday
afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through tonight
and continue for the offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet
through mid-morning Friday. Scattered to numerous showers with a
few embedded lightning storms are forecast through tonight and
into at least Friday morning, especially near and north of Cape
Canaveral.

Saturday-Monday...Improving boating conditions this weekend into
early next week, with southeasterly to southerly winds remaining
under 15kts. Seas 3-4ft becoming 2-3ft through the period.
However, greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage
is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances
for offshore-moving convection in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  75  90  77 /  40  60  50  20
MCO  88  75  93  77 /  20  30  40  20
MLB  87  75  90  78 /  30  40  30  20
VRB  87  74  91  77 /  20  20  30  30
LEE  90  76  94  78 /  20  30  60  20
SFB  88  74  93  77 /  30  40  50  20
ORL  88  75  93  78 /  30  30  40  20
FPR  87  73  90  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Law