093
FXUS62 KMLB 230153
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
953 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Elevated Low level easterly flow and a band of low level moisture
from near the Cape southward will continue to transport isolated
to scattered showers onshore through the remainder of the night.
Isolated storms will also be possible over the coastal waters,
with one or two storms potentially pushing onshore, mainly south
of Melbourne. Rain chances continue to range around 20-30 percent
across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly
dry conditions forecast into tonight, with skies mostly clear to
partly cloudy. Model guidance continues to indicate greatest
potential for any fog development across north Florida into late
tonight. However, may see some patchy fog expand into areas
northwest of I-4 through Lake and NW Volusia counties toward
daybreak Monday. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s,
with upper 70s possible along the immediate coast south of the
Cape that maintain an onshore wind.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Mainly VFR into tonight. It will be mostly dry, except for
isolated onshore moving showers along the coast from near to
south of the Cape into tonight, and have continued VCSH in the
TAFs for these sites. Latest guidance keeps greatest potential for
fog development across north Florida late tonight into early
Monday morning. However, could see some patchy fog form northwest
of the I-4 corridor near or around KLEE so added a brief tempo for
MVFR visibilities from 10-12Z.

Drier air will continue to build into the region, especially
across northern portions of east central FL, which will keep rain
chances limited and mainly south of Orlando. Have therefore kept
VCSH in the TAFs for KVRB-KSUA. Ridge and warmer temps aloft
should keep limit if not completely suppress any lightning storm
development across southern portions of east central FL.

NE winds becoming light and variable overnight, then picking up
again out of the E/NE into late morning/afternoon on Monday, with
speeds 7-12 knots and gusts to 15-18 knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure over the Deep South
gradually transitions eastward into the western Atlc. Present
NERLY winds will veer ERLY overnight into Mon becoming ESE/SE on
Tue. Wind speeds will remain AOB 15 kts thru Tue morning, then
increase 12-18 kts areawide Tue afternoon-night. ISOLD-WDLY SCT
shower/lightning storm chances - highest values south from the
Cape. Seas generally 3-4 ft, with up to 5ft possible offshore/Gulf
Stream beginning Tue afternoon-night.

.Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the
forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward
into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 80% chance of
formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system.
While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could
bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to
deteriorate from around mid into late week, as southeasterly winds
increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will
increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast
for any changes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  74  89 /  10  10   0  10
MCO  74  92  74  91 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  77  89  77  89 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  89  75  89 /  30  20  10  20
LEE  73  92  73  92 /  10   0   0  10
SFB  73  91  73  91 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  75  92  75  92 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  75  89  75  89 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich