Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
317 FXUS62 KMLB 210603 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 203 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 203 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Prevailing light rain is forecast to persist from MLB northward through the early morning hours. TEMPOs included at these terminals for MVFR VIS/CIGs in occasional heavier bands of rainfall. VRB winds around 5 kts are forecast through at least sunrise as low pressure continues to approach the northeast Florida coastline. Winds becoming east into the afternoon increasing between 8-12 kts. VCSH/VCTS mentioned this afternoon from MLB northward while overall coverage of precip decreases. VCTS also mentioned at SUA. && .UPDATE... (Through Friday) Issued at 933 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 KEY MESSAGES... - Low pressure 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral has a 50% chance of tropical development over the next 18 hours as it approaches North Florida. - Scattered to numerous showers and isolated lightning storms overnight north of Melbourne to Kissimmee. Shower coverage on Friday is expected to be highest north of Orlando. - Hazardous beach and boating conditions continue tonight, with large waves and a high risk of deadly rip currents. - Increasing heat and humidity near and south of Orlando on Friday, with max heat index readings as high as 100-105F. Invest 92L, a weak low pressure system, is approaching Florida`s Atlantic coast tonight. A surge of deep moisture is moving onshore now from Melbourne northward, with PW`s sharply increasing to around 2.50" according to MIMIC-TPW data. This is above the max moving average, and approaching record daily values for late June. Bands of showers are increasing just off the coast. Through the overnight, shower chances increase to around 30% along the Treasure Coast, 40-50% for Melbourne to Orlando, and 60-80% from Titusville to Daytona Beach. Mainly north of Melbourne, there is a 20-40% chance of receiving more than an inch of rain through mid- morning Friday, and a lower (approximately 10%) chance of spotty 2 inch amounts where repeated rains occur. As the low approaches northeast Florida, we will begin to reside under a surface trough, allowing the pressure gradient to relax overnight into Friday morning. Expect winds to become lighter and more variable. The exception to this will be in the vicinity of heavier showers and any isolated storms, especially along the coast, where gusts to 25-35 mph will be attainable. Breaking 5-7 FT surf and a high risk of rip currents continue at our area beaches overnight. Friday`s forecast is somewhat challenging as the steering flow begins to collapse around 92L. The plume of deep moisture will slowly move northwestward, and modestly drier air will reside immediately to its south. Guidance still disagrees on how quickly this plume exits our area. At this time, showers appear likely (55-65%) north of Orlando in the morning, becoming more scattered (30-50%) near Orlando and isolated to dry (<20%) south from there. Then, we will reintroduce a 30% chance of storms for much of the area late in the afternoon as some moisture tries to sneak back in from the south. While sunshine will break out for our southern communities, clouds may linger along and north of I-4. Highs on Friday will be dependent on the clearing trend from south to north. High confidence in low/mid 90s over South-Central Florida (Osceola/Okeechobee) and the interior Treasure Coast, and upper 80s/low 90s Space and Treasure Coasts. Along and north of I-4 where clouds may linger, went with a range from 85-92F, "coolest" near Daytona Beach. With the high humidity, peak heat index readings from 95-105F are expected, highest south of Orlando. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Tonight...Hazardous marine conditions remain with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Breezy to gusty northeast winds persist as an approaching low pressure system brings rain and isolated lightning storms through Friday morning. Seas build up to 9 feet offshore, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Closer to the coast seas 5-7 ft are expected. Winds begin to subside from midnight onward as the Atlantic disturbance (AL92) begins to lift northwestward. Friday-Monday (modified previous)...By Friday morning, winds are forecast to be southeasterly. Seas subside through the day, becoming 4-6 ft by the afternoon. Scattered showers with a few embedded lightning storms are forecast through at least Friday morning, especially near and north of Cape Canaveral. Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with southeasterly to southerly winds remaining under 15 kts. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. However, greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore-moving convection each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 76 91 75 / 70 30 60 60 MCO 91 77 92 76 / 50 30 60 50 MLB 89 77 90 76 / 30 30 60 60 VRB 91 76 90 75 / 30 30 60 40 LEE 89 77 94 76 / 60 30 60 50 SFB 89 76 92 75 / 50 30 60 50 ORL 90 77 92 76 / 50 30 60 50 FPR 91 76 90 75 / 30 30 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ550-552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572. && $$ UPDATE...Heil AVIATION...Law