Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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538 FXUS62 KMLB 160713 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 313 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...Lower Precip Chances Through Tuesday... ...Deteriorating Marine/Surf Conditions Next Week... ...Breezy/Gusty Onshore Winds Next Week... Current...Again, quiet on the radar front with mostly dry conditions over land. The pressure gradient remains relatively weak as winds range from light/variable (LV) to calm. Humid conditions persist with temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s. Satellite imagery shows some mid/high level cloudiness streaming west-east overhead. Today-Tonight...The weak pressure pattern continues for one more day across the area. L/V morning winds will gradually become onshore areawide and the ECSB will develop and push inland again today. Drier air will follow in behind the sea breeze as deepest moisture this afternoon/evening pools across the western peninsula. Drier overall today, though we do carry 20-30pct across coastal counties and 30-40pct over the interior and this may be generous numbers for most. Deepening ERLY flow develops across ECFL with storm steering flow also directed westward. Max temps in the M-U80s at the coast with near 90F to L90s into the interior. Peak heat indices will average 96-102F, with highest readings inland. Overnight mins mild and mainly in the 70s with conditions humid. Mon-Mon Night...Deep ERLY flow continues with warm temperatures aloft. PWAT values average 1.25-1.40 inches (below normal). Again, 30pct for PoPs which seems generous, as high pressure aloft grows stronger along the mid Atlc and southeast U.S. ERLY winds will become breezy/gusty and slowly diminish into the evening, though will likely remain elevated overnight along the coast. Max temps in the M-U80s at the coast and near 90F to L90s inland. Warm and sultry conditions persist overnight with mins in the 70s. Tue-Sat...The strong mid-level high pressure along the Atlc Seaboard is forecast to continue to strengthen, while its center pushes slowly northward. Closer to home an area of low pressure over the western Atlc takes aim towards the FL east coast. Slow development of this system is possible around mid-week as this feature moves rapidly W/NW. PWATs remain unimpressive until later on Wed as they increase with approach of the aforementioned low. The moist conditions remain in place through late week. PoPs will likely fluctuate, especially mid-late week - depending on position and strength of the low pressure. For now, we carry 40pct for Tue, 50pct for Wed, and 60pct Thu-Sat. Some heavy rainfall will accompany the low, but it is too early to pin down areas and how much. The deeper onshore flow will continue into Wed, then will transition with the low pressure (position pending) Wed night into Thu, before becoming onshore again (for now) late Thu into the weekend. Expect breezy/gusty (onshore) winds through at least mid next week. Winds may remain elevated during the nighttime, especially along the coast. Thanks in part to the onshore flow, max temperatures will be seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s (interior), and overnight lows remaining mild in the 70s. Conditions could become increasingly humid on the backside of the low once it passes and we will need to watch heat indices as they increase for Fri/Sat. Surf conditions will deteriorate much of this week as persistent moderate to strong onshore winds will also build ocean swells. Numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents will develop at area beaches along with rough surf. Water runup to the dune line, along with beach erosion may occur during the high tide cycle from mid to late week. Coastal Flood/High Surf advisories may be necessary during this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Today-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient continues across the local waters early this morning with L/V winds under 10 kts. However, an NE/ENE flow will develop with speeds increasing to 8-13 kts by afternoon. ERLY winds will increase tonight to 12-17 kts areawide as the pgrad begins to tighten. Seas 2-3 ft, but begin to build later tonight up to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream. Mon-Thu...The pgrad continues to tighten this week as onshore winds winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu with the approach of low pressure over the western Atlc, which does have some potential to develop by around mid-week as it ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon and up to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up to 7 ft offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps up to 12 ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach 14 ft offshore by early Thu. At the very least Cautionary Statements next week will turn into Small Craft Advisories, and perhaps some "tropical" wording mixed in by around mid-week should the aforementioned low develop. Shower and isolated lightning storm chances will go up by mid-week across the local waters as moisture values increase. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will become northeast by early morning and increase to 5-10 KT. Due to deep easterly flow and drier air filtering in, SHRA/TSRA looks to favor west Florida. Thus, have maintained VCSH for interior sites starting at 20Z for any westward moving convection that forms along the sea breeze. Northeast winds will become light after sun down. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 76 88 76 / 30 10 40 20 MCO 91 75 88 75 / 40 20 30 20 MLB 88 77 88 77 / 30 20 40 30 VRB 88 76 88 76 / 20 20 40 30 LEE 92 76 91 75 / 40 10 30 10 SFB 91 75 89 75 / 30 10 30 20 ORL 91 75 89 75 / 40 20 30 20 FPR 88 76 87 76 / 20 20 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Watson