Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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390 FXUS62 KMLB 151721 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 121 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Scattered showers and storms are already in progress across the area this afternoon due to little/no convective inhibition. Thus, VCSH/VCTS required through the afternoon along with TEMPOs for TS. With a weak disturbance and trough nearby, winds remain SW`ly for the Treasure Coast terminals, VRB/SSE for Greater Orlando area, and bcmg E/NE for DAB to MLB this afternoon with sea breeze development. VFR should mainly prevail through the day into tonight outside of storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Current local radar imagery shows dry conditions over east central Florida with scattered showers and isolated lightning storms along the southwest coast of Florida moving northeast. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows a weak boundary located across east central and southern Florida with higher moisture to the south of the boundary (PWATs ~ 2-2.4"). Current temperatures are in the low to upper 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Scattered showers (PoPs ~ 30-60%) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into this afternoon as forcing increases with interactions between the sea breeze and outflow from storms to the west-southwest. Light and variable winds this morning are forecast to increase into the afternoon at 5-10mph generally from the southwest well inland and from the east-southeast near the coast. Weak wind fields will result in slow moving storms with a minor flooding potential (1-3" locally in 60 to 90mins), mainly over areas that have received recent heavy rainfall. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists over most of east central Florida for this reason. Isolated lightning storms will also be capable of wind gusts to 30-40mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s are forecast under party to mostly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Today-Tonight...Weak pressure gradient over the area with L/V morning winds, remaining mostly light (under 10 kts) and variable over the open Atlc and transitioning onshore near the coast with sea breeze formation. An offshore wind component develops again this evening and overnight, mainly AOB 10 kts. Seas up to 2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore. Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing 8-13 kts on Sun, 11-16 kts Sun night, and we may be looking at 15-20 kts Mon-Wed as the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun evening, 3-4 ft Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed night. ISOLD-SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into Wed, possibly ramping up to likely Wed night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 76 88 / 10 50 20 50 MCO 74 89 75 89 / 20 70 10 50 MLB 74 88 77 88 / 20 50 30 50 VRB 73 88 76 88 / 20 50 10 40 LEE 75 91 75 91 / 20 70 10 40 SFB 74 91 75 90 / 20 60 10 50 ORL 75 91 76 90 / 20 70 10 50 FPR 73 87 76 87 / 10 50 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Heil