Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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311 FXUS62 KMLB 091132 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 732 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 732 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 No significant changes from the 06Z package. VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. Just ISO TSRA/SHRA expected along the sea breezes, the sea breeze collision, and TSRA outflow boundaries, which should mostly stay west and south of the terminals, but chances for TSRA impacts high enough at all ECFL terminals except KDAB/KSFB/KLEE for VCTS. Coverage/confidence too low for TEMPOs, but can`t rule out a short-fused AMD if a terminal gets unlucky. Light WNW-WSW winds once again favor a diffuse WCSB, forecast to reach KLEE ~17Z and increase winds to 5-10 kts. ECSB reaches the coastal terminals between 16Z-20Z, earliest to the south, shifting winds initially ESE ~10kts then veering to SE-SSE at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts by around 22Z. Sea breeze collision forecast near KSFB and near or east of KMCO/KISM ~23Z-00Z. Winds 10 kts or less after 02Z, veering to SW late tonight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Key Messages: -Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM for portions of east central Florida -Record high temperatures forecast today and Monday, including Leesburg and Sanford -High rain chances arrive by mid to late week, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible Today-Tonight...Another warm start is underway with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s early this morning. A moisture gradient is bisecting the area with PW around 1.35" to 1.50" north of Orlando to 1.80" farther south. The main story for today is going to be the heat, which has prompted a Heat Advisory for portions of Brevard and Orange counties south to Okeechobee County. Along the coast, the afternoon sea breeze will work to knock temperatures down a few degrees, so heat indices there will approach but fall just short of advisory criteria. In addition, drier air north of I-4 will keep heat indices largely below criteria. High temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s will be common most everywhere, with several sites like Leesburg and Sanford forecast to tie previous record highs. Widespread heat indices of 102 to 107 are expected with values up to 110 in the advisory area. If planning to be outdoors today, even for a short periods of time, make sure to stay well hydrated and take frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned spaces. This level of heat can affect anyone without adequate hydration and effective cooling. Remember to never leave children or pets behind in vehicles! Afternoon to early evening rain and isolated lightning storm chances will be largely confined to locations surrounding Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. PoPs were kept near 40-50 percent there, with only a slight chance of a stray shower or storm from Orlando and Cape Canaveral to the Melbourne area. Warmer temps aloft will work to limit overall lightning activity. Outside of any isolated storms, winds may briefly gust behind the inland push of the sea breeze. At the beaches, a moderate risk for rip currents is present. Temperatures will decrease slowly tonight, backing down into the mid 70s by sunrise Monday. Monday-Tuesday...A significant shift in the prolonged hot and dry weather pattern will commence early in the week with increasing rain and storm chances, especially from Orlando and Melbourne southward on Monday. Mid level ridging, slightly warmer 500mb temps, and relatively drier air hold across northern locations Monday afternoon, keeping the highest PoPs (50-70 percent) focused south. Model soundings depict appreciable moisture (2"+ PW), supportive lapse rates, and a backed low-level wind profile along the coast. One limiting factor to stronger storms may be marginal 500mb temps, but there does appear to be a non-zero risk of a few strong storms Monday afternoon. The east coast breeze will likely stay pinned farther east, with storms forming nearer to the coast and drifting offshore through the early evening. Temperatures will reach the upper 90s north of Orlando with the remainder of the area reaching the low to mid 90s. Heat indices may again approach 108 degrees in a few spots, but it remains to be seen whether coverage will be high enough to warrant an advisory. A weak cool front is forecast to approach north Florida on Tuesday as high pressure builds of the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The slightly more dominant west-southwest surface flow will again keep the east coast breeze stuck near and east of I-95. With PW approaching and eclipsing 2" over much of the area, scattered to numerous showers and embedded lightning storms are forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening. Repeated episodes of heavy downpours could produce a quick 0.50" to 1.50" of rainfall in any given location. 48-hour QPF from Monday through Wednesday morning ranges from 2" to 3" from Melbourne southward, and 0.50" to 1.50" near and north of I-4. Resultant afternoon temperatures will only be able to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, due to increased cloud cover. Lows remain steadily in the low to mid 70s each night. Wednesday-Saturday...Significant rain chances become established mid to late week as tropical moisture anchors across the FL peninsula. This moisture will push daily PWs toward climatological maximums. The threat for heavy rainfall and localized flooding goes up as a result, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. Successive rounds of moderate to heavy rain and isolated storms will be maximized during the daytime hours but could also linger through the nighttime hours. With time for the forecast to be further refined, the current Wed-Sat QPF places a wide swath of 3" to 5" over central FL with locally higher amounts possible. If realized, this would certainly help the present drought conditions. Afternoon highs will be limited to the 80s with the coolest days being Thursday and Friday. South-southeasterly winds may also turn breezy Friday into Saturday as low-level winds increase. Model guidance is in less agreement toward the latter half of the weekend, but some flavor of rain chances may linger into Sunday as well. Overall, it is shaping up to be a rather wet stretch of days, from Wednesday onward. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today-Tonight...Westerly winds back to the southeast this afternoon behind the east coast breeze (10-15 kt). Winds veer again to the SSW tonight and approach 17-18 kt over the Gulf Stream, before decreasing toward daybreak Monday. Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible, mainly south of Cape Canaveral and Sebastian Inlet. Seas 1-2 ft. Monday-Thursday...Increasing moisture, especially from Tuesday onward, will lead to higher rain and isolated storm chances into mid week. On Monday, SW winds back to the SSE behind the sea breeze, increasing and veering SSW again Monday night (especially over the Gulf Stream). More persistent SSW flow on Tuesday will back to the SSE by Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected mid to late week. Boating conditions deteriorate due to high rain and storm chances, though seas outside of storms will generally remain 2-3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Continued fire sensitive conditions are forecast today through at least Monday, as above normal temperatures and overall dry conditions remain. Only isolated showers and storms are expected from near Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast this afternoon. Relative humidity values will fall into the mid to upper 30s north of Interstate 4. Additionally, a Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of east central Florida this afternoon. A gradual improvement to fire weather conditions is expected through the week as moisture and subsequent rain chances significantly increase by mid to late week. However, lightning strikes may lead to additional fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 97 74 96 74 / 10 0 40 40 MCO 97 76 95 76 / 20 10 60 50 MLB 93 76 93 75 / 30 10 70 50 VRB 93 75 93 74 / 30 20 70 60 LEE 98 75 96 76 / 10 10 40 40 SFB 99 75 97 75 / 10 10 50 40 ORL 98 76 96 76 / 20 10 50 40 FPR 93 75 93 74 / 30 20 70 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ045-053-058-247-254-259-347-547-647. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Haley