390
FXUS62 KMLB 151721
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
121 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Scattered showers and storms are already in progress across the
area this afternoon due to little/no convective inhibition. Thus,
VCSH/VCTS required through the afternoon along with TEMPOs for TS.
With a weak disturbance and trough nearby, winds remain SW`ly for
the Treasure Coast terminals, VRB/SSE for Greater Orlando area,
and bcmg E/NE for DAB to MLB this afternoon with sea breeze
development. VFR should mainly prevail through the day into
tonight outside of storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current local radar imagery shows dry conditions over east central
Florida with scattered showers and isolated lightning storms along
the southwest coast of Florida moving northeast. GOES-16 satellite
imagery shows a weak boundary located across east central and
southern Florida with higher moisture to the south of the boundary
(PWATs ~ 2-2.4"). Current temperatures are in the low to upper
80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Scattered showers (PoPs
~ 30-60%) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into this
afternoon as forcing increases with interactions between the sea
breeze and outflow from storms to the west-southwest. Light and
variable winds this morning are forecast to increase into the
afternoon at 5-10mph generally from the southwest well inland and
from the east-southeast near the coast. Weak wind fields will result
in slow moving storms with a minor flooding potential (1-3" locally
in 60 to 90mins), mainly over areas that have received recent heavy
rainfall. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists over most of
east central Florida for this reason. Isolated lightning storms will
also be capable of wind gusts to 30-40mph and occasional to frequent
lightning strikes. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s with
heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s are forecast under
party to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Today-Tonight...Weak pressure gradient over the area with L/V
morning winds, remaining mostly light (under 10 kts) and variable
over the open Atlc and transitioning onshore near the coast with
sea breeze formation. An offshore wind component develops again
this evening and overnight, mainly AOB 10 kts. Seas up to 2 ft
near shore and 2-3 ft offshore.

Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing
into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing
8-13 kts on Sun, 11-16 kts Sun night, and we may be looking at 15-20
kts Mon-Wed as the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun
evening, 3-4 ft Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed
night. ISOLD-SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into
Wed, possibly ramping up to likely Wed night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  76  88 /  10  50  20  50
MCO  74  89  75  89 /  20  70  10  50
MLB  74  88  77  88 /  20  50  30  50
VRB  73  88  76  88 /  20  50  10  40
LEE  75  91  75  91 /  20  70  10  40
SFB  74  91  75  90 /  20  60  10  50
ORL  75  91  76  90 /  20  70  10  50
FPR  73  87  76  87 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Heil