815
FXUS62 KMLB 151130
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
730 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Some
models continue to show possible MVFR conditions developing this
morning, especially along the coast, but confidence remains too
low that this will occur. Thus, have kept this out of TAF for now,
but will continue to monitor and amend if necessary. Light and
variable winds will increase to 5-10 KT by late morning and become
E/SE from ISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB- TIX, and W/SW from MLB- VRB-
FPR- SUA. SCT/NUM SHRA and ISM/SCT TSRA in the afternoon. Have
included VCTS for all sites starting at 18/19Z. Have included
TEMPOs for MCO-LEE-TIX-MLB (where the greatest potential for
convection to occur this afternoon) for TSRA starting at 19/20Z.
Timing and coverage remains too uncertain at the other sites to
include TEMPOs at this time. Activity will dissipate or move away
from the local area shortly after sunset. Winds will become light
and variable once again overnight Saturday, with winds becoming
onshore by mid morning on Sunday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current...KMLB 88D shows mostly dry conditions over land across ECFL
and ISOLD shower activity over the local coastal waters. The
pressure gradient is relatively weak as winds range from L/V to
calm. Humid conditions with temperatures/dewpoints in the 70s. For
clouds, just a few low clouds speckled in observations, with
satellite imagery showing a BKN/OVC layer of high cloudiness near
Orlando southward. North of Orlando there are fewer overall clouds
and will monitor for some early morning shallow, patchy fog here,
but confidence is low.

Today-Tonight...A weak pressure pattern continues across the area.
The ECSB will develop again today and move inland, quicker across
the north as winds veer onshore behind it. Ample moisture will
exist along with daytime heating and boundary interactions to
spark SCT, mainly afternoon-evening showers and lightning storms.
Activity will diminish into mid-late evening. Steering flow aloft
is light so expect slow-moving convection. Primary convective
threats will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds 30-40 mph locally, and heavy downpours which could cause
minor flooding, especially for areas that may have recently
received heavy rainfall and/or from repeated rounds. Max temps in
the M-U80s with near 90F to L90s in play across and north of I-4.
Peak heat indices well into the 90s and L100s possible near/north
of a central Osceola-Melbourne line. Overnight mins mainly in the
70s with conditions humid.

Sun-Sun Night...Onshore flow becomes deeper across the area as weak
high pressure slides southward across the Eastern Seaboard and
southeast U.S. Light onshore flow areawide. ISOLD-SCT convection
along the coast during the morning/early afternoon, with SCT
showers/lightning storms favoring interior reaches in the mid-late
afternoon and early evening. Mainly U80s for highs, except L90s for
N/W of I-4. Overnight lows remaining in the 70s.

Mon-Fri...Stout mid-level ridge across the mid Atlc/southeast U.S.
extending into the FL peninsula will strengthen thru Tue night along
the Eastern Seaboard, but is undercut Wed-Fri by some westward
moving mid-level impulses. Temperatures warm aloft, as well, -4.0C
to -5.5C. Plentiful PWAT values near 2 inches on Mon, then some
overall drier air moves in through mid-week before a return to more
moist conditions Thu-Fri. The deep onshore flow continues thru the
period and along with the warm temperatures aloft may at best
provide for ISOLD lightning chances, especially over land. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft Wed-Fri, along with an influx of moisture
may be enough to promote SCT wording for thunder during this
timeframe. Showers will remain in the SCT category with perhaps
NMRS showers Thu-Fri.

With the persistent onshore flow at least into Wed, we will
likely see greatest precip chances along the coast
overnight/morning-early afternoon hours, with higher afternoon-
evening convective chances across the interior. By Wed night thru
Fri, medium range models suggest higher PoPs areawide due to the
previously mentioned energy/cooler temps aloft and increased
moisture. The pressure gradient begins to tighten next week and we
may see some breezy onshore conditions each day, perhaps
remaining elevated along the coast during the evening/overnight
periods. This will create additional convergence along the coast
and the latter part of this period, we may have to watch for some
pockets of heavy low-topped showery precip, especially along the
coast, should this scenario play out. Have undercut the NBM`s
high-PoP bias in the extended for now.

Thanks in part to the onshore flow, temperatures will be seasonable
through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s
(interior), and overnight lows remaining mild in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Today-Tonight...Weak pressure gradient over the area with L/V
morning winds, remaining mostly light (under 10 kts) and variable
over the open Atlc and transitioning onshore near the coast with
sea breeze formation. An offshore wind component develops again
this evening and overnight, mainly AOB 10 kts. Seas up to 2 ft
near shore and 2-3 ft offshore.

Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing
into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing
8-13 kts on Sun, 11-16 kts Sun night, and we may be looking at 15-20
kts Mon-Wed as the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun
evening, 3-4 ft Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed
night. ISOLD-SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into
Wed, possibly ramping up to likely Wed night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  89  76 /  30  10  20  20
MCO  89  74  89  75 /  60  20  40  10
MLB  88  74  88  77 /  60  20  40  30
VRB  88  73  88  76 /  60  20  30  20
LEE  92  76  92  75 /  50  10  40  10
SFB  91  74  91  75 /  50  10  40  10
ORL  90  75  91  75 /  60  20  40  10
FPR  87  72  88  75 /  60  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson