881
FXUS62 KMLB 221949
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

KEY MESSAGES:

- High rain shower and storm chances this weekend into next week

- High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values
 at 100-107 degrees each afternoon

- High risk for rip currents today with at least a moderate risk
  Sunday into next week

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Currently-Tonight... An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) remains
near the Georgia and northeast Florida coast with a mid/upper
level ridge centered over the Deep South. Local KMLB radar imagery
shows scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms to the south of I-4. However, that will likely change soon
with outflow from previous storms moving north and west of I-4
where scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms
are forecast to develop into this evening (PoPs ~ 60-70%). Rain
shower and storm chances are expected to diminish after sunset and
into the overnight hours. Hi-res guidance indicates the potential
for scattered showers and lightning storms to develop along a
convergent line (extending from what`s left of Invest AL92)
overnight into early Sunday over the local Atlantic waters.
Southeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph as the sea breeze
pushes inland into this evening are expected to become light and
variable overnight.

Sunday... An early start to scattered onshore moving showers
(PoPs ~ 40-50%) and lightning storms are forecast Sunday morning
along the Treasure Coast. Showers and storms are forecast to
develop and increase in coverage into the afternoon as the east
coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the weaker west
coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms.
Southeast winds will increase into the afternoon with the sea
breeze at around 8-12 mph with gusts to 20mph. The main hazards
associated with lightning storms will be wind gusts up to around
30-35mph, locally heavy rainfall with minor flooding potential of
the typical areas (1-3" in a short period of time), and frequent
lightning strikes. Rain shower and storm chances dwindle after
sunset (PoPs ~20-30%). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s with heat index values in the 100-107 degree range are
forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies.

Monday-Friday (modified previous discussion)... Not much change
for the upcoming week with daily diurnally sea breeze driven
showers and lightning storms expected to develop each afternoon.
Mid level ridging stays in place across the southern tier of the
U.S. while sfc flow becomes SW to W as ridge axis slips south of
the area. This offshore flow will not be strong so the Atlc sea
breeze will be able to form each day, producing a SE wind off the
ocean. Deep moisture with precip water values of 2+" will support
scattered to numerous aftn storms and into the evening. While this
pattern will provide some needed rain for those who still
need/want it, some areas will get too much with a minor flooding
potential of typical areas (1-3" in a short period of time). The
main lighting storm hazards will be wind gusts up to 30-35mph,
locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.
Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm with high dewpoints.
Max temps in the lower 90s near the coast (due to the slightly
delayed sea breeze) and mid 90s inland will produce peak heat
indices 102 to 107. Overnight temperatures will stay in the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Currently-Tonight... Invest 92L remains to the north of the local
Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered
lightning storms are forecast over the local Atlantic into Sunday
morning. The main hazards will be wind gusts up to 30-35mph,
moderate to heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. South to
southeast winds at 10-15kts are forecast to decrease to 5-10kts
overnight. Seas are forecast to build to 2-3ft nearshore and up to
4ft offshore.

Sunday-Wednesday (previous discussion)... High pressure centered
offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this
weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the
sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift
south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As
a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to
west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day.
Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances
high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT
today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions forecast outside of convection. Ongoing shower and
storm development across southern portions of ECFL will expand
northwestward towards the interior terminals. TEMPOs in effect at
MLB and TIX through 20Z, with TEMPOs at the interior terminals
between 19 to 23Z for MVFR VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Lingering
VCSH along the coast will diminish after 00Z, with conditions
across the interior improving after 03Z. Southeast winds will
become light and variable overnight, picking back up out of the
south between 5 to 10 knots tomorrow morning after 15Z. Another
day of showers and storms is forecast for tomorrow, with VCSH at
the coastal terminals after 16Z. Activity will expand towards the
interior in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  75  92 /  50  70  30  60
MCO  75  90  75  92 /  50  70  30  70
MLB  75  90  74  90 /  40  60  30  60
VRB  75  89  74  90 /  30  60  30  60
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  60  70  30  70
SFB  75  91  75  93 /  50  70  30  70
ORL  76  91  75  92 /  50  70  30  70
FPR  75  89  73  90 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen