305
FXUS62 KMLB 212035
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
435 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

Key Messages:

- An area of low pressure (AL92) continues to move west-northwest
  towards the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts

- Daily shower and lighting storm chances increase into the
  weekend

- Increasing heat and humidity through early next week with heat
  index values at 100-110 degrees Saturday

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Currently-Tonight... Invest AL92 is located offshore near the
northeast Florida coast which continues to move west-northwest
towards the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. East to
southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15-20mph this afternoon
will become light and variable overnight. Current radar imagery
shows scattered showers and isolated lightning storm, mainly over
the interior of east central Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast into the
early evening with the main lightning storm hazards expected to be
gusty winds, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief
heavy rainfall. Southeast winds at 5-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph
this afternoon are forecast to become light and variable
overnight. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to
upper 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday... Invest AL92 is expected to move west-northwest to the
north of east central Florida over northern Florida/southern
Georgia into Saturday. High moisture with PWATs in the 2-2.4"
range will help sea breeze driven scattered to numerous showers
and isolated to scattered lightning storms to develop into the
afternoon Saturday with the greatest chance for showers and storms
along and near I-4, as well as the western interior (PoPs ~
60-70%). The main hazards with lightning storms will be
occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to
30-40mph, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values at 100-105 along
the coast and 102-110 inland are forecast under partly cloudy to
partly sunny skies.

Sunday-Thursday (modified previous discussion)... Patchy fog is
forecast Sunday morning mainly between 5am and 9am. Patchy ground
fog will have the potential to reduce visibility to a half mile
or less at times mainly over the Treasure Coast and northern Lake
and Volusia counties before dissipating into the mid morning
hours. Upper level ridging stays in place across the southern
tier of the U.S., weakly influencing the overall pattern here in
Florida. H500 falls across the southeast and Mid Atlantic are
expected Sunday into Monday as a low pressure system moves across
the Great Lakes region. Surface flow will remain southerly,
backing southeast during the afternoon as the sea breeze forms.
Light flow becomes increasingly SSW through midweek next week.
With PW around 2"+ through much of this period, expect at least
scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms each afternoon
and evening as sea breeze and storm-scale boundary collisions
occur over the peninsula. PoPs go up to 60-70 percent later in
the weekend and next week. The NBM remains too high with PoPs (a
common bias at least here in FL) so we continue to cap forecast
values. Regardless, this stretch of days could provide some
additional much needed rain for parts of the area. Temperatures
through the extended stay warm, generally in the low 90s. Heat
indices approach 100-107 Sunday and then the 102-110 range Monday
and into midweek. Nighttime temperatures will stay in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Currently-Tonight... An area of low pressure (Invest AL92)
continues to move west-northwest to the north of the local
Atlantic waters. East to southeast winds at 10-15 kts are forecast
to subside at 5-10kts overnight into Sunday morning. Seas are
forecast to build to 3-5 ft with up to 6 ft in the offshore
Volusia and Brevard county waters through this evening before
diminishing to 3-5ft overnight. Isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms are generally expected to move offshore this
evening and into the overnight with the capability of producing
cloud to water lightning strikes, moderate to brief heavy
rainfall, and wind gusts to 30-40mph.

Sat-Tue (previous discussion)... Improving boating conditions
this weekend into early next week, with south to southeast winds
remaining under 15 kts this weekend, then veering more SW early
next week. A sea breeze near the coast should develop each aftn,
however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater
daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially
early next week, with increasing chances for offshore- moving
convection each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR CIGs have slowly lifted to VFR this morning into the early
afternoon, and that trend will continue into the remainder of the
day. VCSH continues across the interior terminals, DAB, TIX, and
MLB, with some VCTS possible after 19Z at MCO and ISM. Variable
winds this afternoon will become more ESE through the remainder of
the afternoon around 10 knots. VCSH does not end until around
01-03Z, with winds becoming SE along the coast and light and
variable across the interior. Winds pick up out of the ESE after
17Z along the coast with the development of the ECSB, with the sea
breeze reaching the interior terminals after 19Z. Increasing
shower and storm coverage is expected tomorrow afternoon as the
sea breeze moves inland. VFR conditions are expected to persist
tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  74  91 /  40  70  40  70
MCO  77  92  75  91 /  40  70  40  70
MLB  77  90  76  89 /  30  50  40  70
VRB  77  90  75  90 /  30  50  40  70
LEE  77  93  76  92 /  40  70  40  70
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  40  60  40  70
ORL  77  92  76  91 /  40  70  40  70
FPR  76  90  75  89 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen