859
FXUS62 KMLB 072357
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
757 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Brief MVFR CIGs/VIS will be possible in stronger storms this
evening with gusts around 20 KT possible. Kept VCTS everywhere
except KLEE through 03Z, with the greatest potential for storms
along the coast (DAB-SUA). Winds will become light and variable
overnight before winds become SW around 5-10KT by mid-morning.
The east coast sea breeze will form once again Saturday afternoon
and push inland, backing winds onshore. Have included VCSH for all
the inland terminals starting at 20Z and VCTS starting at 20/21Z.
Have not included TEMPOs at this time.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

-Isolated to scattered lightning storms still forecast this
 afternoon, capable of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall

-Increasing temperatures this weekend with heat index values
 102-108+ and a risk for heat exhaustion or heat stroke

-Coverage of showers and storms increases next week, timing and
 rainfall amounts remain less certain

This Afternoon-Tonight...As of the early afternoon, initiation of
convection has held off across the local area with potent storms
producing excessive lightning drifting over the Everglades. Isolated
cells have popped up over Marion County and Lake George, with
additional activity expected to develop along the sea breeze over
the next few hours. Guidance has backed off a bit with overall
coverage and intensity of storms this afternoon, but still the focus
will reside just west of I-95 towards the coast, where storms
producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds will be
possible from 3-8 PM. The east coast sea breeze has begun its
journey inland, with coastal sites now reporting temperatures below
90 degrees. While there is still opportunity for temperatures to
rise again, it appears that the best chance for broken high
temperature records resides across the interior. Heat index readings
have risen above 100F this afternoon (which will only worsen heading
into this weekend).

With any convection ending around sunset, a few rain cooled areas
may feel a bit of heat relief this evening, otherwise low
temperatures fall to the mid 70s overnight.

Saturday-Sunday...This weekend, a mid level ridge will drift across
the Gulf of Mexico, settling in across the FL Peninsula as a surface
boundary washes out over northern portions of the state. This will
offer slightly lower rain chances north of Orlando, but keeping a 50-
60% chance for the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee vicinity.
Convection will be enhanced by the sea and lake breeze boundary
interactions, with lightning strikes and gusty winds the main storm
threats both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

The main concern this weekend will be the abnormally hot
temperatures which will rise well above average values. Highs at the
coast will reach 93-95 with interior sites climbing to 96-98, with
records at all climate sites at risk. Heat index readings will reach
above 106 degrees, upwards of 110-111 north of Lake Okeechobee. Heat
Advisories will certainly be needed this weekend, with extreme Heat
Risk conditions being introduced on Sunday to metro Orlando. Again,
little to no heat relief will be offered overnight with lows in the
mid to upper 70s and the potential for a few warm minimum records.

Monday-Thursday...(modified) Monday remains hot with temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 90s, heat index values spanning the 100s,
and the Heat Risk extreme criteria expanding to more areas of east
central FL. Rain chances do begin to increase early in the week as
tropical moisture begins to lift northward as the mid level ridge
begins to break down. 850mb-500mb SW winds increase Tuesday and
Wednesday, supporting scattered to numerous showers and lightning
storms through the day, perhaps lingering into the nighttime hours.
Medium-range solutions still show a bit of spread through mid week,
but diverge even more through the extended, as the GFS keeps highest
rain totals through Friday closer to central FL while the ECMWF
keeps most of the heaviest rain over the Gulf, leaving 1-2" for the
local area. Regardless, have kept the 70-80% PoPs in the forecast
for Tuesday and beyond, as beneficial rain is expected, its just a
matter of where the highest totals will land.

Daytime temperatures will largely depend on the presence (or
absence) of rainfall and associated cloud cover. For now, the
forecast leans toward the NBME and cooler side of guidance, with the
ECMWF several degrees warmer. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low
90s through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Tonight-Weekend...Outside of lightning storms, boating conditions
will remain favorable this weekend with seas of 2 feet and offshore
winds becoming southeasterly near 10-15 knots with the sea breeze
development each afternoon. Mariners should be cautious of offshore
moving showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours, with
locally higher seas, gusty winds and lightning strikes all possible.

Monday-Tuesday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail into
early next week, although south to southwest winds increase above 15
knots briefly early on Tuesday. Much higher tropical moisture
arrives on Tuesday, bringing rain chances of 70-80% from mid to late
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  94  75  96 /  30  20  10  20
MCO  75  97  77  97 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  74  94  75  94 /  30  30  20  40
VRB  73  94  74  95 /  30  30  20  40
LEE  76  97  77  98 /  10  30  10  30
SFB  75  98  75  99 /  20  30  10  30
ORL  76  97  77  98 /  20  40  10  40
FPR  72  94  73  94 /  30  40  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson