Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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259 FXUS62 KMLB 112017 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Currently-Tonight...Showers and storms continue near to north of Orlando, while areas farther south are only seeing isolated development at this time. Some of the CAM guidance does indicate a surge in convection or at least stratiform rainfall across southern areas through sunset, but with cloud cover limiting instability and lack of additional boundaries, it is difficult to say how much additional development there will be. CAM guidance does at least agree in decreasing shower and storm coverage into this evening, but still keeping some rain chances around 20-40 percent overnight. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches with some isolated spots of 4" or higher are still possible, especially in any persistent or repeated rounds of showers and storms through this evening. This could produce minor flooding in low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Additional storm threats will include lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 40 to 45 mph. With the moist airmass in place, mild and humid conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The surface disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic. NHC currently has a low chance of tropical development with this system (around 20 percent) over the next 7 days, but regardless of any development, high rain chances and potential for locally heavy rainfall will still be the main concern across our area through mid to late week. There are some differences in how far south a front will make it across the northern FL peninsula and potential for some decreasing PW values/lowering of rain chances across this area. However, for now have higher rain chances around 70-80 percent continuing each day through late week, with the potential for some showers and storms continuing during the overnight hours, but lower in coverage. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible each day. Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below normal but muggy in the M-U80s. Saturday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard will lift northeast, with a wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes from run-to-run). There remains some uncertainty in how much moisture will persist across the area as we head later into the weekend and into early next week, but moisture looks to remain high enough to keep likely PoPs (60-70 percent) into the weekend, falling to 50 percent on Monday. Highs largely continue in the mid to upper 80s, with some low 90s forecast near to NW of I-4 each afternoon. Lows remain in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Tonight...Boating conditions will be poor to hazardous across the coastal waters. Went with a short fused Small Craft Advisory for the offshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast for the remainder of the afternoon through much of tonight. S/SW winds at buoy 41009 have been reaching around 20 knots already and some guidance indicates that speeds around 20 to 25 knot will continue into tonight. Over the nearshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast, as well as offshore of Volusia County, small craft should exercise caution for wind speeds up to 15-20 knots. Across the nearshore waters of Volusia County wind speeds will be around 10 to 15 knots. Seas will continue to build up to 3-5 feet, with occasional seas up to 6 feet offshore. Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Subtle shifts in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 10-15 kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could become poor, they should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Ongoing convection is forecast to increase in coverage into the afternoon. Prevailing MVFR CIGs are forecast generally around 2,000- 2,500 ft today, falling further at times overnight. Convection is expected to diminish across the north around 0Z with mention of VCSH potentially lingering through late evening. Potential for -RA beyond 0Z at the Treasure Coast terminals. Winds generally out of the south to southwest around 12 kts today. Winds may become gusty and variable in vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 87 74 88 / 50 70 50 70 MCO 75 85 74 86 / 60 80 60 80 MLB 73 87 74 86 / 70 80 70 80 VRB 73 87 73 87 / 80 80 70 80 LEE 75 88 76 89 / 50 80 50 70 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 50 80 ORL 75 87 75 88 / 60 80 60 80 FPR 73 87 72 87 / 80 90 70 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ572-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Law