Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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435 FXUS62 KMLB 170523 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 123 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Will monitor for patchy fog/low stratus (low confidence) development overnight and early Tue morning, otherwise continued mainly VFR outside of afternoon/evening convection ~ MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Should any fog/stratus develop, expect burn-off by around mid-morning. Some "Vicinity" wording in place for later convection and will accommodate TEMPO groups later on as necessary. Appears greatest convective coverage may be south of KMCO. Light/variable winds will transition onshore in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes well inland by late in the day. Storm steering flow today will be toward the ENE at 10-15 kts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A line of scattered showers and isolated lightning storms that developed along boundary collisions near the stalled frontal boundary extends from Polk County into Osceola, Brevard, and northern Indian River Counties. While individual cells are generally moving to the east-southeast at 15-20 mph, the line itself is mostly stationary, and there is a small chance for storms or heavy showers to get hung up on a boundary and produce locally high rainfall amounts. Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusts to 40 mph will also be possible. In addition, with modest bulk shear and strong surface convergence along outflow boundaries, a funnel cloud or even a waterspout cannot be ruled out. HRRR seems to be handling this activity the best, albeit 2-4 hours to slow, so generally used that guidance with temporal correction to make some adjustments to forecast PoPs. Expect this activity to push offshore over the next few hours, with maybe a very slight shift to the south. Otherwise, no significant changes to a mostly quiet overnight forecast. Only other weather concern continues to be patchy fog development across the interior in the early morning hours. Winds light northeasterly to easterly, becoming variable/calm at times, under mostly cloud skies, with overnight lows in the L-M70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue over the coastal waters from elevated swells from PTC8. Will allow the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) over the nearshore waters, north of Sebastian Inlet to drop off early at 4 PM, as seas at buoys 41009/41070 have remained around 6 feet. However, lingering seas up to 7-8 feet are still forecast offshore, so will maintain SCA headlines through late tonight for the 20-60nm offshore zones. Nearshore, will keep exercise caution headlines for seas up to 6 feet. Winds will be relatively light and somewhat variable with weak frontal boundary across the area, and speeds will generally range around 5-10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible over the waters. Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas subside Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Variable winds continue into late week while remaining 10 kts or less. Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 91 73 / 30 10 40 30 MCO 91 75 92 74 / 50 10 50 30 MLB 89 75 90 74 / 50 20 40 40 VRB 91 73 91 73 / 50 30 50 40 LEE 89 74 91 74 / 40 10 50 20 SFB 89 73 91 74 / 50 10 50 30 ORL 91 75 92 75 / 50 10 50 30 FPR 91 73 91 73 / 50 20 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Sedlock