Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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333 FXUS62 KMLB 162359 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 759 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 751 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the evening and first half of the night. A line of TSRA/SHRA has developed on boundary collisions from west to south of KMLB, which could propagate southeastward towards KVRB-KSUA the next several hours, so added VCTS generously through 07Z-08Z at these terminals. Dry conditions at the northern terminals, but the frontal boundary stalled across CFL could help produce more MVFR- IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS impacts, though only KLEE has chances high enough for reductions in the TAFs. Any stratus or fog that develops should clear by 14Z-15Z, with a typical diurnal seabreeze pattern and near normal afternoon SHRA/TSRA chances. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Key Messages... - Poor to hazardous boating and surf conditions will continue tonight into Tuesday - Saint Johns River at Astor forecast to remain in Moderate Flood through this week - High astronomical tides will promote elevated water levels into this week, and a Coastal Flood Advisory continues through at least Tuesday night Currently-Tonight...Low pressure northeast of FL (Potential Tropical Cyclone 8) will push onshore the South Carolina coast into tonight, with frontal boundary associated with this system remaining across the southern half of central FL. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across the region through mid to late afternoon as moisture continues to increase and a passing disturbance in the mid levels aids in destabilization and lift. With a continued west-southwest steering flow some of this activity may be able to push back toward the east central FL coast and offshore into this evening, especially near to south of the Cape. Still can`t rule out isolated stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty winds to 40-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the main threats. Dry conditions should largely prevail past midnight, and there will again be the potential for patchy fog, especially across the interior. Lows will fall into the low to mid 70s. High astronomical tides will continue to produce elevated water levels through this week. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during the high tide cycles, with the next of these occurring between 7-8PM tonight. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues currently through Tuesday evenings high tide cycle, but additional extensions in this advisory may be needed through the week. Tuesday...Frontal boundary will linger across the central Florida peninsula into tomorrow as it lifts slowly northward. Moisture continues to gradually increase, with PW values around 1.8-1.9" across the entire region. This should again allow scattered showers and storms to develop into the afternoon and evening (PoPs 40-50%), with a westerly steering flow continuing to shift convection eastward across the area and offshore. Lingering drier air aloft and cool temps at 500mb around -7C may still allow for isolated stronger storms to form, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to 40-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. Highs will be in the upper 80s/low 90s with humid conditions producing peak heat index values 98-104. Lows will continue to range in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mid level low pressure across the southeast U.S. becomes absorbed into an open trough late week. A series of 500mb vorticity pulses will move across the peninsula through the period. The surface boundary across north Florida shifts back southward across the area Thursday, moving into south Florida. A drier airmass builds behind the boundary while moisture piles up to its south. Coverage of showers and storms remains mostly scattered through the extended period with PoPs generally between 30-50 percent, except up to 60 percent across Okeechobee County and the southern Treasure Coast on Wednesday. High temperatures in the low 90s cool into the upper 80s by the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue over the coastal waters from elevated swells from PTC8. Will allow the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) over the nearshore waters, north of Sebastian Inlet to drop off early at 4 PM, as seas at buoys 41009/41070 have remained around 6 feet. However, lingering seas up to 7-8 feet are still forecast offshore, so will maintain SCA headlines through late tonight for the 20-60nm offshore zones. Nearshore, will keep exercise caution headlines for seas up to 6 feet. Winds will be relatively light and somewhat variable with weak frontal boundary across the area, and speeds will generally range around 5-10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible over the waters. Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas subside Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Variable winds continue into late week while remaining 10 kts or less. Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 89 73 90 / 20 40 20 40 MCO 74 91 73 92 / 20 50 10 50 MLB 76 90 74 90 / 40 50 40 50 VRB 76 90 73 91 / 30 50 40 50 LEE 73 90 73 91 / 20 40 10 40 SFB 73 90 73 91 / 20 50 10 50 ORL 75 91 74 92 / 20 50 10 50 FPR 76 90 73 90 / 30 50 40 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Haley