Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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977 FXUS62 KMLB 161825 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Primarily VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/storms. MVFR conditions are forecast at KLEE after 06z for BR and visibility to 4miles into the early AM. TAFs begin with VCTS between 18-20Z at KSUA and TAF sites N of KMLB. Isolated to scattered showers/lightning storms are forecast to develop into the PM and end by 00-02Z. Light and variable winds are forecast to become onshore into the PM && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Key Messages: -Scattered showers and storms are forecast this week. -A high risk of rip currents exists at area beaches. -Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue. -Astronomical high tides will promote higher than normal tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued. Current-Tonight...Isolated convective activity across Osceola county late last night has gradually moved eastward through the early morning hours, finally moving offshore Cape Canaveral. Otherwise, mostly quiet across the local CWA. Have kept a broad mention of patchy fog from southern Brevard and Osceola counties southward ahead of sunrise. However, confidence in this scenario is dwindling due to increasing high cloud cover. 06Z analysis charts show a surface boundary stretched across the Florida peninsula this morning. Where not obstructed by cloud cover, GOES-16 PWAT imagery indicates a band of drier air in place. Models suggest the driest air remaining centered between Cape Canaveral and Lake Okeechobee. A moisture gradient to the north will host the greatest focus of scattered afternoon showers and storms. The current forecast calls for 30-50% PoPs north of a line from Cape Canaveral to Lake Marion. Isolated stronger storms will be capable of occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. High temperatures will remain in the low 90s with peak heat index values forecast between 98-104. Long period onshore flow from PTC8 and astronomical high tides will continue to promote poor to hazardous marine and beach conditions. Recent observations at Trident pier have shown tidal levels up to 2.05 ft above the mean higher high water datum, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued along the central Florida Atlantic Coast through the next several high tide cycles. Over the local marine area, seas near 7 ft have been observed, and the Small Craft Advisory across the offshore waters has been extended to include nearshore Volusia and Brevard. At area beaches, there is a high risk of life threatening rip currents. Tuesday...The aforementioned surface boundary lifts northward across the area on Tuesday, temporarily settling across north Florida. Aloft, a 500mb shortwave swings southeastward across the Florida peninsula. Mid-level moisture recovers some compared to Monday while PWATs remain shy of 2" (1.7-1.9"). Low level moisture should still be sufficient enough to support scattered afternoon convection with PoPs ranging 30-50 percent. Isolated strong storm hazards continue to remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Afternoon temperatures remain near seasonal in the low 90s with peak heat index values between 99-105. Onshore long period swells around 9 seconds will continue to promote a high risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches. Wednesday-Sunday...Mid level low pressure across the southeast U.S. becomes absorbed into an open trough late week. A series of 500mb vorticity pulses will move across the peninsula through the period. The surface boundary across north Florida shifts back southward across the area Thursday, moving into south Florida. A drier airmass builds behind the boundary while moisture piles up to its south. Coverage of showers and storms remains mostly scattered through the extended period with the greatest coverage forecast on Thursday (50-60%). High temperatures in the low 90s cool into the upper 80s by the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Today-Tonight...Long period onshore swell from PTC8 will continue to promote poor to hazardous boating conditions. Early morning observations from NOAA Buoy 41009 and NOAA Buoy 41070 have shown seas increasing near 7 ft, and the Small Craft Advisory across the offshore waters has been expanded to include nearshore Volusia and nearshore Brevard. Small craft should exercise caution across the nearshore Treasure Coast. Seas are forecast to subside to 5-6 ft nearshore late this afternoon, while hazardous seas of 7-8 ft continue into the late evening offshore. Winds will remain light throughout the day, generally remaining 10 kts or less. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast. Tuesday-Friday...Seas subside Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Variable winds continue into late week while remaining 10 kts or less. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lighting storms are forecast each day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The Saint Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate Flood stage (around 3.2-3.4 ft) through midweek. The potential exists for small additional rises if locally heavy rainfall develops over the river basin. Southward, additional heavy rainfall across the Saint Johns River basin has caused a steady rise in river levels with the forecast point at Deland now in Action Stage and the point at Sanford forecast to reach Action Stage Tuesday. Geneva Above Lake Harney is now forecast to to remain just below Action Stage into early this week, with a brief rise to Action Stage possible toward midweek. Additional heavy rain could cause further rises, so interests along the river should monitor for forecast updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 89 73 90 / 20 40 20 40 MCO 74 91 73 92 / 20 50 10 50 MLB 76 90 74 90 / 40 50 40 50 VRB 76 90 73 91 / 30 50 40 50 LEE 73 90 73 91 / 20 40 10 40 SFB 73 90 73 91 / 20 50 10 50 ORL 75 91 74 92 / 20 50 10 50 FPR 76 90 73 90 / 30 50 40 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550- 552. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Fehling