Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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506 FXUS62 KMLB 261128 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 728 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions expected to continue through this morning, with scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms developing into the afternoon, producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. Greatest coverage of this activity will be with boundary collisions that are favored toward to just west of the I-95 corridor around mid to late afternoon. Storms will move slowly eastward toward the coast and offshore through sunset, with some isolated to scattered convection potentially lingering across east central FL into the evening. Have kept VCTS at most sites from 18Z-00Z (17-23Z at KLEE), with VCSH lingering through 03Z. HRRR guidance has been trending lower in storm coverage for this afternoon, but have went ahead and added tempo groups from 20-23Z for coastal sites that have a better chance for storms this afternoon. Light W/NW winds 5-7 knots will become E/SE around 8-10 knots along the coast from around 18Z onward as east coast sea breeze forms. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Today...The western extent of a surface ridge axis resides over the Straits of Florida. West to southwest flow persists locally, promoting the inland extent of the west coast sea breeze. CAMs are rather excited in developing scattered convection on the boundary with outflow running ahead. Light offshore flow is expected to keep the east coast sea breeze across the coastal counties with scattered showers and storms developing along it. Afternoon outflow/ sea breeze collisions will occur in vicinity of the I-95 corridor where shower and storm chances will be highest today (~60-70%). Steering flow is then expected to overcome the east coast boundary, pushing showers and storms back towards the coast through the late afternoon and into the evening. Late afternoon redevelopment west of I-95 cannot be completely ruled out as new outflow boundaries interact with the lagging west coast sea breeze. Primary hazards with any storms today continues to remain heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and localized gusty winds. A Moderate to Major Heat Risk continues today. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s, while conditions remain humid. Peak heat index values are forecast between 102-106 degrees. Thursday-Friday...Mid level troughing and an accompanying surface boundary sink across the southeast U.S., washing out as it approaches north Florida on Friday. The western flank of Atlantic high pressure continues to hold influence over central Florida, keeping west to southwest flow in place through Friday afternoon. The west coast sea breeze remains favored, with a sea breeze collision forecast across the central or eastern side of the peninsula each afternoon. While global models continue to show moisture discrepancies, 00Z CAMs indicate the potential for high coverage of showers and storms again on Thursday. With little change expected in the pattern by Friday, have kept a persistent forecast with PoPs up to 60% each afternoon. High temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values between 103-107 degrees. Saturday-Tuesday...The surface ridge axis lifts northward through Saturday, settling across the central peninsula into early next week. Winds become light and variable on Saturday, with a broad southerly component developing by Sunday. The summertime pattern continues each day, favoring diurnal showers and lightning storms. Afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values between 103-107 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Today-Sunday...Seas around 2 ft gradually increase to 3 ft across the offshore waters Thursday and Friday as an onshore swell increases. Light offshore winds become onshore Saturday before developing a broad southerly component on Sunday. Winds back with the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. A summertime pattern continues with high coverage of showers and storms forecast across the local waters (50-70%) each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 76 94 76 / 60 40 60 20 MCO 93 76 92 77 / 60 50 60 10 MLB 91 76 93 76 / 60 30 60 20 VRB 91 74 93 74 / 60 30 60 10 LEE 94 76 93 77 / 50 20 60 10 SFB 94 76 93 77 / 60 40 60 10 ORL 94 77 93 77 / 60 40 60 10 FPR 91 74 93 74 / 60 30 60 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Weitlich