Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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406 FXUS62 KMLB 251139 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 739 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR through at least 14Z within a weak pressure gradient environment. Light SW to W flow will turn onshore (E) around 10 knots btwn 16Z-18Z at coastal terminals, increasing up to 15 knots possible toward 00Z. The sea breeze storms should stay just west of the coastal terminals so will handle with VCTS there. Higher coverage of TSRA forecast over the interior assocd with boundary collisions aft 20Z. Have added a TEMPO for MVFR conds in TSRA for MCO/SFB/LEE btwn 21Z-24Z with lingering VCSH a couple/few hours past 00Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Today-Wednesday...A typical summertime diurnal heating pattern will promote scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms today. The east and west coast sea breeze are expected to develop in light west to southwest background flow. A sea breeze collision is forecast east of where it was observed yesterday, with 00Z guidance suggesting it occurring in vicinity of the Orlando metro. Have mentioned scattered (30-50%) PoPs through the early afternoon along and ahead of the east coast sea breeze. Coverage of showers and storms (60-70%) increases across the interior counties as the sea breezes collide late in the afternoon into the evening. Steering flow should remain light enough to limit high coverage of showers and storms being pushed back towards the coast, but have kept a 30- 50% mention of showers and storms along the coast through the evening hours. A similar set up is expected Wednesday. However, slightly stronger westerly winds could allow a sea breeze collision to occur closer to the I-95 corridor with more storm push back toward the coast in the evening. The greatest storm hazards each day include heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and localized gusty winds. Temperatures remain slightly above seasonal values, generally in the low 90s. Mid 90s will be possible along and north of the I-4 corridor today. Persistent muggy conditions will produce a moderate to major heat risk each day, and peak heat index values up to 106 are forecast. Thursday-Friday...A surface ridge axis is extended westward across the Straits of Florida. Westerly flow prevails locally, favoring a sea breeze collision across the central or eastern side of the peninsula each day. There remains some uncertainty in the amount of moisture and overall storm coverage through the period. Global models continue to suggest the potential for a drier airmass to advect from the Gulf, but little has been resolved when comparing model runs from 24 hours ago. A GFS solution continues a much more aggressive, drier solution (PWATs ~ 1.5-1.7). The ECMWF holds onto higher moisture as a boundary sags across the southeast U.S. Have held PoPs steady with this forecast package (60%) and will continue to monitor moisture trends. Afternoon temperatures remain in the low 90s each day with peak heat index values up to 105. Saturday-Monday...Light southerly flow develops into the weekend while the western extent of the Atlantic ridge holds influence. A typical diurnal pattern of afternoon showers and storms continues. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 353 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Today-Saturday...Light offshore flow shifts southward each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Background flow then becomes southerly on Saturday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze in the afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally 10 kts or less. Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft across the far offshore waters. High coverage of summertime showers and storms are forecast each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 75 92 75 / 50 30 70 20 MCO 94 75 91 76 / 70 60 70 20 MLB 91 75 91 75 / 50 30 70 30 VRB 91 74 91 74 / 50 40 70 20 LEE 94 76 93 76 / 70 40 70 20 SFB 94 76 93 76 / 60 50 70 20 ORL 94 76 92 77 / 70 60 70 20 FPR 92 74 91 74 / 60 40 70 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Kelly