Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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457 FXUS62 KMLB 230058 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 858 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A return this afternoon/evening to a more normal diurnal summertime wx pattern across ECFL. Deep moisture, daytime heating, and various boundary collisions promoted SCT-NMRS showers and lightning storms. This activity will continue to diminish into mid-late evening and overnight. Cannot rule out ISOLD convection along the coast overnight, especially south from Melbourne. S/SE winds will become L/V to calm this evening and overnight. Clouds will thin overnight as convection diminishes. Overnight lows in the 70s areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 855 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Overnight...Scattered-numerous showers and lightning storms over the local Atlc waters. Primary convective hazards remain cloud- to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours. S/SE winds will veer a bit more SSW overnight with speeds 5-10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore, locally higher invof storms. Sunday-Wednesday (previous discussion)...High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-Wed. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Currently-Tonight...An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) remains near the Georgia and northeast Florida coast with a mid/upper level ridge centered over the Deep South. Local KMLB radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms to the south of I-4. However, that will likely change soon with outflow from previous storms moving north and west of I-4 where scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into this evening (PoPs ~ 60-70%). Rain shower and storm chances are expected to diminish after sunset and into the overnight hours. Hi-res guidance indicates the potential for scattered showers and lightning storms to develop along a convergent line (extending from what`s left of Invest AL92) overnight into early Sunday over the local Atlantic waters. Southeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph as the sea breeze pushes inland into this evening are expected to become light and variable overnight. Sunday...An early start to scattered onshore moving showers (PoPs ~ 40-50%) and lightning storms are forecast Sunday morning along the Treasure Coast. Showers and storms are forecast to develop and increase in coverage into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the weaker west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. Southeast winds will increase into the afternoon with the sea breeze at around 8-12 mph with gusts to 20mph. The main hazards associated with lightning storms will be wind gusts up to around 30-35mph, locally heavy rainfall with minor flooding potential of the typical areas (1-3" in a short period of time), and frequent lightning strikes. Rain shower and storm chances dwindle after sunset (PoPs ~20-30%). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Monday-Friday (modified previous discussion)...Not much change for the upcoming week with daily diurnally sea breeze driven showers and lightning storms expected to develop each afternoon. Mid level ridging stays in place across the southern tier of the U.S. while sfc flow becomes SW to W as ridge axis slips south of the area. This offshore flow will not be strong so the Atlc sea breeze will be able to form each day, producing a SE wind off the ocean. Deep moisture with precip water values of 2+" will support scattered to numerous aftn storms and into the evening. While this pattern will provide some needed rain for those who still need/want it, some areas will get too much with a minor flooding potential of typical areas (1-3" in a short period of time). The main lighting storm hazards will be wind gusts up to 30-35mph, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm with high dewpoints. Max temps in the lower 90s near the coast (due to the slightly delayed sea breeze) and mid 90s inland will produce peak heat indices 102 to 107. Overnight temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Normal diurnal wx pattern this past afternoon-early evening. Convective activity will gradually wind down thru mid-late evening. TEMPO MVFR conds invof SCT shra`s/tsra`s. However, cannot rule out some ISOLD activity over the interior or some convective activity along the Treasure Coast. Will update with TEMPO`s as appropriate. S/SE winds will become light/variable this evening/overnight. Cloud cover will thin thru the night. Southerly (Sun) morning winds will back ESE/SE with sea breeze formation and inland movement on Sun. Speeds up to around 10 kts. Another day of SCT-NMRS convection with focus inland/interior in the afternoon/evening on Sun. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 90 75 92 / 40 70 30 60 MCO 75 90 75 92 / 40 70 30 70 MLB 75 90 74 90 / 40 60 30 60 VRB 75 89 74 90 / 30 60 30 60 LEE 76 91 76 92 / 40 70 30 70 SFB 75 91 75 93 / 40 70 30 70 ORL 76 91 75 92 / 40 70 30 70 FPR 75 89 73 90 / 30 60 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Sedlock