Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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979 FXUS62 KMLB 192317 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 717 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 IMPACTS: -Occasional MVFR CIGs/VIS in quick-moving showers. -Gusty easterly breezes, locally exceeding 25 KT. Persistence is the name of the game as we await the next weak disturbance in the deep easterly flow off the Atlantic. This provides an increase in shower coverage late this evening through early Thursday morning, with a diminishing trend between 20/10-13Z. The chance of lightning is around 20% tonight. VFR will dominate outside of showers. East winds will remain gusty at times. At the tail end or just beyond these TAFs, a stronger piece of energy approaches the NE coast of Florida tomorrow evening. With it, the potential increases for another period of showers and reduced CIGs, particularly for DAB/TIX/SFB. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Now-Tonight...Scattered showers persist this afternoon across portions of the area, at the moment focused around the Orlando metro and points west. Temperatures have recovered in a number of locations, including those that saw rain earlier today. Values span the 80s with a few spots pushing 90 degrees. RAP analysis indicates a tightened MSLP gradient over central Florida. Together with a bit of daytime mixing (as sunshine emerges from the clouds), gusty winds are once again reaching 25-30 mph. Breezy to gusty conditions will remain through sunset in most places, gradually decreasing inland with wind speeds staying elevated at the coast tonight. A continuation of isolated to scattered showers is anticipated with a lower threat of isolated lightning storms, primarily from Orlando/Sanford east toward the coast. In fact, a complex of showers and storms over the Atlantic is marching westward this afternoon and if it holds together, could approach the northern half of the ECFL coast in the next several hours. Models are struggling to depict representative current conditions but do show some shower activity approaching the coast around or just after sunset. Overnight, lows will settle in the mid 70s everywhere except the coast, which is expected to stay in the upper 70s most of the night. Thursday-Friday...An area of showers and storms, associated with a weak trough over the southwestern Atlantic, will work west- northwest tomorrow into Friday. Higher PW surrounding this feature will work across the northern portions of ECFL late tomorrow afternoon and evening. With persistent onshore flow, scattered rain showers and isolated lightning storms remain in the forecast. 30-50 PoP sufficiently covers these waves of moisture with occasional breaks in activity. The QPF is highest generally near and north of the Cape, reaching up to 1-1.50" through Saturday morning. However, locally heavier rainfall could produce 1-2" in a much quicker timeframe, especially where repeated rounds of rain move over the same locations. Temperatures will continue to warm each day, despite intermittent cloud cover. Highs in the mid to upper 80s in most locations, up to 90 degrees inland, are forecast for Thursday. Friday looks to be a couple to a few degrees warmer areawide. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...As the aforementioned trough washes out over the eastern US, surface ridging is forecast to build into the western Atlantic. The ridge axis will extend towards the Florida peninsula, where it will linger into next week. Sufficient moisture remains through the extended period, maintaining daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The NBM continues to suggest very high (likely) PoPs for this period, but continue to keep PoPs around 50 percent or so. Onshore winds will veer progressively southerly into next week, allowing for a more centralized sea breeze collision, if not a collision over the eastern half of the peninsula. So, will need to monitor to see if higher PoPs would be justified and where. Little relief from building temperatures, with highs reaching the mid 90s over the interior by late weekend with lingering muggy conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tonight...Hazardous marine conditions and a Small Craft Advisory for all of the adjacent Atlantic waters remain. Persistent onshore flow of 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt offshore are forecast through the overnight period. As a result, seas build as high as 9 ft north of Sebastian Inlet and up to 6-7 ft nearshore. Scattered showers and isolated lightnings storms will continue drifting toward the coast tonight. Thursday-Sunday (modified previous)...Hazardous boating conditions continue through at least late Thursday night with seas 7-9 ft Thursday possibly approaching 10 ft offshore. Breezy ENE winds up to 15-20 kts will linger, though slightly lower than Wednesday. Improving boating conditions will end the work week and continue into the weekend, as winds and seas diminish. Lingering seas 4-5 ft Friday afternoon will become 2-3ft by Sunday. Increasingly southeasterly winds are forecast at 10-15 kts. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue, capable of producing locally higher wind gusts and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 86 76 89 / 40 50 50 50 MCO 75 88 75 92 / 30 40 20 50 MLB 78 87 76 89 / 40 40 20 50 VRB 77 87 75 89 / 40 40 20 50 LEE 76 90 76 94 / 20 30 20 50 SFB 75 88 75 92 / 30 40 30 50 ORL 76 88 76 92 / 30 40 20 50 FPR 77 87 74 88 / 40 40 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Heil