234
FXUS62 KMLB 272000
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Current-Friday... Convection had an earlier start once again today,
with scattered showers and isolated lightning storms streaming
across western Florida from the GOMEX this morning, with some of the
activity pushing into east central Florida, mainly into Lake/N
Volusia. The east coast sea breeze has form from Cape Canaveral
southward this morning and is currently trying to move inland. The
sea breeze is forecast to get pinned along the I-95 corridor once
again today due the stronger West/southwest flow. Scattered showers
and lightning storms will continue to stream across east central
Florida this afternoon ahead of the west coast sea breeze, with the
highest coverage (PoP 60 percent) of showers and storms this
afternoon and evening occurring along the I-95 corridor as boundary
interactions with the east coast sea breeze occur. Some storms may
be strong. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes,
and gusty winds of 40-45 mph. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches
will also be possible in any stronger or slower moving storms. Hot
and muggy conditions persist this afternoon, with afternoon highs in
the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 102-107 degrees.

Any lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the local area
by sunset. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions over land areas tonight.
Seasonable and humid conditions tonight, with low temperatures in
the low to mid 70s.

Friday, upper level trough across Quebec/NE US will shift further
east and northward, pulling a surface boundary across the SE US
which will gradually fade through the day, with a weak quasi-
stationary front persisting north of Florida. Locally, west to
southwest flow will persist on Friday as the ridge axis of the
Bermuda high resides south of the region, although wind speeds will
be slightly weaker than today. Due to the weaker surface flow, the
east coast sea breeze should be able to move in farther inland, with
the sea breeze collision occurring further inland of I-95. Scattered
showers and storms will develop out ahead of the west coast sea
breeze once again on Friday and move east-northeast across east
central Florida and move offshore through the afternoon and early
evening. An increase in coverage of showers and storms (PoP 50-60
percent) will be possible later in the afternoon and into the
evening with any sea breeze or outflow boundary collision. Main
storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-
45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Hot and humid conditions will
persist Friday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Peak
heat indices will range from 102-107 degrees.

Saturday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis of high
pressure over the west Atlantic shifts back northward into the
region this weekend, which will lead to a weak S/SW flow early on
Saturday, becoming S/SE Saturday late morning, and continuing on
Sunday. East coast sea breeze will develop early in the afternoon
and move gradually inland, with late afternoon/early evening sea
breeze/outflow boundary collisions and greater storm coverage
favored over the interior into the weekend. Moisture remains high
enough, with PW around 2-2.3 inches, for scattered to potentially
numerous showers and storms each day. PoPs range from 50 percent
along the coast to 60 percent generally west of I-95. Gusty winds,
lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main threats from any stronger storms.

Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast, and low to mid
90s across the interior, with peak heat index values still around
102-107 through the weekend. Overnight lows remain in the 70s.

Monday-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge aloft
centered over the south-central U.S. early next week will expand
eastward across the southeast states and Florida through the
middle portion of next week. At the surface, another weak front
moves into the southeast U.S., with ridge axis either near or
shifting just south of Lake Okeechobee. This will lead to a
prevailing low level S/SW flow across the area through this
period, which will continue hot and humid conditions and provide
enough moisture for at least scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms from early to mid week. PoPs continue around
50-60 percent each day, with highs continuing in the low to mid
90s. Peak heat index values look to continue to generally range
from around 102-107 for much of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida
Straits into tonight. SW flow has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind
the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight, with speeds
generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore
waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered showers and
lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the
overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Friday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis begins
to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday
before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend
through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind
speeds continue around 5-10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon
as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up
to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will
continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday
and Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Iso/sct convection has initiated generally west of SFB/DAB early
this afternoon, which will bring very brief vis/cig reductions to
interior terminals over the next few hours as activity drifts
eastward. By 19Z, coverage is anticipated to increase, with a more
robust boundary collision occurring near MCO/ISM later this
afternoon. The line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will move
towards the coast, bringing MVFR/IFR reductions to TIX south to SUA
through 23Z with erratic gusty winds anticipated. Opted to add TEMPO
mention for all sites with the 18Z package, especially based on
current radar trends. Activity will move offshore by 00Z. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  76  92 /  20  60  30  60
MCO  76  93  77  92 /  10  60  20  60
MLB  76  92  77  90 /  30  50  40  50
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
LEE  77  93  78  93 /  10  60  20  60
SFB  76  93  77  93 /  10  60  30  60
ORL  77  93  78  92 /  10  60  20  60
FPR  74  93  75  90 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper