Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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109 FXUS62 KMLB 161744 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 144 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, but a couple inland terminals could see MVFR-IFR VIS impacts from TSRA/SHRA for an hour or so. SHRA over performed a little along the ECSB, developing ISO-SCT at 17Z, a little earlier and higher coverage than expected and prompting AMDs for VCSH/VCTS at inland terminals, and a TEMPO for KSFB. Activity will press west through the afternoon, with the bulk of the convection west of the terminals by 22Z. VFR conditions prevail after 02Z. Winds Erly ~10 kts at coastal terminals and 10-15G20 kts at inland terminals settle to 5-10 kts overnight, then pick back up to ~15G20-25 kts at coastal terminals by late Monday morning, and 10-15G20 kts at inland terminals in the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Temperatures are steadily warming into the 80s this morning, on the way to highs in the upper 80s (coast) to low/mid 90s (inland). A low to mid level cloud deck from Lake Okeechobee to coastal Stuart County has produced light radar returns over the last hour, warranting a 15-20 PoP across those far southern locations through late morning. Depending on how long clouds last down south, temperatures could stay a degree or so cooler than expected. Otherwise, an inland-moving sea breeze this afternoon will prompt isolated showers and a storm or two to form, mainly from the Orlando metro area westward. Rain and lightning chances remain low but non-zero, with the highest chance (30-40 PoP) situated from Leesburg to the Kissimmee River and Lake Okeechobee. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Today-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient continues across the local waters early this morning with L/V winds under 10 kts. However, an NE/ENE flow will develop with speeds increasing to 8-13 kts by afternoon. ERLY winds will increase tonight to 12-17 kts areawide as the pgrad begins to tighten. Seas 2-3 ft, but begin to build later tonight up to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream. Mon-Thu...The pgrad continues to tighten this week as onshore winds winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu with the approach of low pressure over the western Atlc, which does have some potential to develop by around mid-week as it ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon and up to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up to 7 ft offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps up to 12 ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach 14 ft offshore by early Thu. At the very least Cautionary Statements next week will turn into Small Craft Advisories, and perhaps some "tropical" wording mixed in by around mid-week should the aforementioned low develop. Shower and isolated lightning storm chances will go up by mid-week across the local waters as moisture values increase. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 88 76 87 / 20 20 20 30 MCO 75 88 75 87 / 10 20 10 30 MLB 77 88 77 88 / 10 20 10 40 VRB 76 88 76 87 / 10 20 20 40 LEE 76 91 75 90 / 10 10 10 20 SFB 75 89 75 89 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 76 89 76 89 / 10 20 10 30 FPR 76 87 76 87 / 10 20 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Haley