Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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392 FXUS62 KMLB 141429 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1029 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New UPDATE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Invest AL90 is now to the northeast of Florida over the western Atlantic near the South Carolina coast. A frontal boundary extends from the low across east central Florida over Brevard and Osceola county. The highest moisture is to the south of the boundary which is where the highest rain chances is expected into the afternoon. Meanwhile, GOES-16 satellite and water vapor imagery show moisture being advected northeast over south Florida associated with an area of low pressure over the western Carribean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Guidance indicates that moisture will increase into the afternoon across central Florida from the southwest and as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and boundary interactions occur. Coverage of showers and storms are forecast to increase into the afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms forecast (PoPs ~30-60% north of the boundary and 50-70% to the south). Afternoon highs are on track to reach the upper 80s to low 90s under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Winds are forecast to veer onshore into the afternoon at 5-10mph. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 539 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 -Higher rain chances continue Today and Saturday, with locally heavy rainfall still a concern. -Rain chances remain, but are forecast to gradually decrease into late weekend and next week as winds become onshore and breezy. Today-Tonight... Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE today and remain offshore the eastern US coast. A weak stationary front will slide southward across northern portions of central Florida today and remain in place. Locally, light winds this morning will veer northward by late morning with winds speeds generally 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and push inland, with winds backing to the E/SE behind the boundary. Showers and storms will form along the sea breeze, with the sea breeze collision forecast to occur just to the west of our CWA, or along the far western portion of our inland counties late this afternoon and evening. Model differences remain with how much dry air filters across the northern portions of central Florida (north of the frontal boundary), with the ECM continuing to be the drier solution. Have trended PoPs down to 40-70 percent, with 40-60 percent from Orlando northward, and 60 to 70s percent southward. CAMs have trended down with overall convection today as well, favoring the drier ECM solution. Forecast PW values range from 1.8- 2.1" from Orlando to Titusville southward, and 1.6-1.7" northward. This will be sufficient moisture to support scattered to numerous showers and isolated lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Due to the deeper moisture across the southern portions of east central Florida, the potential for locally heavy rainfall remains in the forecast. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall today, mainly from Orlando to Melbourne southward. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will to be possible with any slow moving or repeated rounds (training) of showers and storms. Other storm hazards will continue to be occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year, with temperatures across the north being a little warmer as cloud cover and rain chances will be slightly less across that area as drier air filters in. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with temperatures possibly reaching in the mid 90s across the north. Overnight lows will be average for this time of year, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Sunday... The area of low pressure, designated Invest 90L, will continue to move N/NE and remain just off the coast of the eastern US. This system may strength some through early weekend. The stationary front draped across northern portions of central Florida will remain in place through early weekend before gradually fading into the latter part of the weekend. High pressure will begin to build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on Sunday. This will in turn push the deeper moisture south and westward, away from the local area. Light and variable winds Saturday morning will become E/SE and increase in the afternoon behind the sea breeze, with winds veering onshore and increasing on Sunday as the high pressure builds over the area. Models continue to disagree about how much dry air will filter across the northern portions of the CWA (north of the stationary front), with the ECM remaining the drier solution. Have maintained lowering rain chances through the weekend from what the NBM model has. Thus, PoPs 40-70 percent on Saturday, and 30-60 percent on Sunday, with the highest rain chances occurring across the south both days. Forecast PW values range from 1.3-1.6" across the north, and 1.7-1.2" across the south, which will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms each day. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday, mainly across the southern portion of the CWA. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will to be possible with any slow moving or repeated rounds (training) of showers and storms on Saturday. Due to the drier air filtering across the area, and the deeper moisture being pushed southward, ECFL is not in an ERO for Sunday. Other storm hazards through the weekend will continue to be occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds. Temperatures will be average to slightly above normal for this time of year, with the northern sections continuing to be slightly warmer. Skies will be partly sunny across the north and partly to mostly cloudy across the south though the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the north and upper 80s to low 90s across the south both days. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Monday-Thursday... Upper level high pressure off the eastern US will continue to build over the Florida peninsula as it shifts north and eastward across the eastern CONUS through mid-week. An upper level low will push westward across the Florida peninsula late in the period, causing the ridge to retreat slightly northward. Locally, onshore flow will remain in place through the period as high pressure dominates. Wind will be breezy, with speeds generally 10-15 mph. Much like with Sunday, due to the high pressure building southward over the FL peninsula, the deeper moisture will remain south and west of the local area, as drier air filters across the area. Uncertainty remains in overall rain chances through mid week as models remain in slight disagreement. The GFS remains the wetter solution as the ECM shows slightly drier air filtering in across the area. The NBM continues to have categorical PoPs. Thus, have limited the PoPs over the local area. Have maintained PoPs 50-70 percent on Monday, and 50 percent area wide Tue-Thur. Temperatures will be seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and overnight lows remaining in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 627 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Stratus not as prominent as previous two early mornings, but will still monitor if it expands more across ECFL. Models continue to hint at drier air northward (Volusia Cty) and we will see an inland progression of the ECSB this afternoon - quicker north of the Treasure Coast. Lower SHRA/TSRA chances in the KDAB-KTIX corridor. Scattered SHRA/TSRA for interior TAF sites and should develop from 18Z-20Z in the KSFB-KMCO corridor and move farther inland through late afternoon twd the KLEE-KISM corridor. && .MARINE... Issued at 539 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today-Tonight... Invest 90L will continue to move N/NE today and remain offshore the eastern US coast. The Stationary front will remain in place across the northern portion of central Florida. Winds will generally be Westward today before backing onshore with the formation of the afternoon east coast sea breeze. Seas 1-2ft across the nearshore waters, and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and scattered lightning storms will continue today, as deep tropical moisture remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. Saturday-Tuesday... The stationary front will remain in place across the northern portion of central Florida through the early part of the weekend before gradually fading into the latter part of the weekend. Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE through Sunday, remaining off the eastern US coast. High pressure will build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on Sunday and continue through early week. Westerly winds on Saturday will veer E/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. Onshore flow will develop on Sunday and continue through early week as the high pressure builds over the local area. Breezy conditions are forecast early next week, with speeds generally 10-15 KT will 15-20 KT possible in the offshore waters by Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will continue each day, especially across the southern waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 10 MCO 92 75 91 75 / 50 30 60 20 MLB 89 74 89 75 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 89 74 89 74 / 70 50 60 30 LEE 94 76 94 76 / 50 20 50 20 SFB 92 74 93 74 / 40 20 50 10 ORL 92 76 92 75 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 89 73 89 73 / 70 50 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Sedlock