476
FXUS64 KMOB 190001
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the forecast period.
Some scattered, possibly broken at times, MVFR ceilings could be
possible overnight but not expected to be widespread at this time
Isolated to possibly scattered showers near the TAF sites near the
coast on Wednesday, but will likely be just to the north of the
TAF locations along a seabreeze that will be moving inland, so
will only carry VCTS in TAFs for now. Easterly winds will remain
elevated between 10-15 knots over inland locations and between
15-20 knots near the coast early this evening, decreasing slightly
overnight. Easterly winds increase again on Wednesday, and may
gust upwards of 25 knots at time especially near the coast. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains dominant over
much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon, while an area of low
pressure (currently known as Potential Tropical One) remains located
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Much of our forecast area
remains located along the southwestern periphery of the upper level
ridge axis. Increased subsidence under this feature has kept
conditions mostly dry over our region. Isolated rain showers have
developed along the immediate coast and into southern portions of
southeast MS where a narrow plume of enhanced moisture continues to
pivot to the northwest.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to nose
southwestward through much of our area tonight before the ridge axis
lifts slightly northward on Wednesday. Deep layer moisture will
remain a little more enhanced over our Gulf marine zones tonight and
potentially into our coastal land zones during the day Wednesday as
a weak inverted trough moves from east to west over the Gulf. We
expect dry weather conditions to remain prevalent tonight. A few
showers could develop near the immediate coast again around daybreak
Wednesday, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible in the
region of higher moisture across southern portions of our CWA going
into the day Wednesday. We will maintain 20-30% POPs on Wednesday
across locations mainly along and to the southwest of a New Augusta,
MS to Destin line. Low temperatures tonight should otherwise range
from around 70 to the lower 70s over interior communities and in the
mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast. Highs Wednesday are
forecast to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.

Persistent moderate to strong easterly flow over the Gulf will
result in continued dangerous surf conditions with large breakers up
to 5-7 feet and deadly rip currents along the Alabama and northwest
Florida beaches through Wednesday. No changes are needed to the
ongoing High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk. /21

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Upper level high pressure sits over the Southeast through the Short
Term, bringing zonal easterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico. A
shortwave trough passes south of the northern Gulf Coast the end of
the week. Surface low pressure meanders around over eastern Mexico
and the Bay of Campeche, ultimately organizing into another surface
low by Saturday. This surface low pressure along with a surface
ridge off the East coast will create moderate to strong east to
southeasterly flow over the Gulf through into the weekend. Highest
moisture levels remain over the Gulf through the end of the week,
until a more developed surface organizes over the Bay of Campeche. A
more southeasterly low level flow develops over the northeast Gulf
and Southeast, bringing Gulf moisture inland over the Southeast.
Most guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising to
around 2" by Saturday morning. Moisture levels over land remaining
on the drier side combined with subsidence from the upper ridge will
keep best chance of rain south of the northern Gulf Coast through
the Short Term, with some bleed over inland near the coast.
Temperatures rise from a more seasonal upper 80s to around 90
Thursday to around 90 to mid 90s on Friday. More modest moisture
levels for this time of the year will keep Heat Indices below 100
for each day. Low temperatures ranging from around 70 well inland to
around 75 along the coast are expected Wednesday through Friday
nights.

Strong swell will continue on area beaches...keeping the Rip Risk at
high levels the rest of the week and most of the weekend.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

An upper level trough swings east over the Conus, shifting the upper
ridge over the Southeast westward as the trough digs a mean upper
trough off the East Coast by the middle of the coming week. The
surface ridge over the East Coast shifts south to over the
Caribbean, shifting low level flow to south by Monday, then
southwesterly by Tuesday. More Gulf moisture flows inland over the
Southeast in response. Decreasing upper subsidence and increasing
moisture will bring an uptick in rain chances, to daily scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms in the coming week. Temperatures
drop to a bit above seasonal norms, with the westward shifting upper
ridge still maintaining control over western portions of the
Southeast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A tight pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure
stretching across the western Atlantic/eastern U.S. and Potential
Tropical Cyclone One in the southwestern Gulf will result in a
continued moderate to strong easterly flow over our marine area
through Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for
the Gulf zones tonight into Thursday morning, and for Lower Mobile
Bay/MS Sound at least through Wednesday afternoon. It is possible
easterly winds could re-strengthen over Lower Mobile Bay/MS Sound
again Wednesday night so we will need to look at potentially
extending the advisory for those two zones in time if confidence in
that scenario increases. Winds will gust to near gale force at times
over the Gulf marine zones 20-60 nm out. Will monitor trends to see
if a Gale Warning might be needed. Seas will remain hazardous
between 7-10 ft through Wednesday night before very slowly subsiding
through the end of the week. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  89  73  91  72  94  72  94 /  10  30  10  30  20  20  10  30
Pensacola   77  91  75  91  75  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  50  30  30  20  40
Destin      78  91  76  91  75  93  77  91 /  10  20  20  50  30  30  20  40
Evergreen   70  91  68  91  68  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  20   0  20  10  30
Waynesboro  71  91  70  91  69  96  69  97 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  20
Camden      71  89  69  90  68  93  70  95 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  20
Crestview   71  93  70  93  69  96  71  96 /  10  10   0  40  10  30  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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