613
FXUS64 KMOB 290705
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
205 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, with an
amplified ridge over the Plains and another trough over the Pacific
NW. At the surface, a weak boundary has moved just off the Gulf
Coast, with winds over the area from the north. The center of
surface high pressure will slide eastward and through the Ohio
Valley today, keeping a northerly component to the surface winds.
Guidance continues to indicate a series of shortwaves moving
around the base of the trough, which will provide a focus for
isolated convection across our interior counties, where more
forcing will be. These will be diurnally driven so any lingering
storms this evening will quickly diminish after sunset. Outside of
any areas of thunderstorms, highs will warm into the upper 80s to
lower 90s, though lower dewpoints will keep heat indices from
rising into the triple digits.

The upper ridge will shift eastward late tonight, moving east of the
Mississippi Valley Thursday. Winds at the surface will generally
remain from the east, slowly veering to the south through the end of
the period. Moisture will increase slightly and isolated to
scattered afternoon showers are possible once again on Thursday.
Clouds will also increase through the day, with highs in the 80s. /73

&&

.SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The axis of the upper ridge will move through the area on Friday as
a trough swings into the Mississippi Valley. Guidance continues to
keep a series of shortwaves moving through the weaker flow aloft,
with diurnally driven thunderstorms expected again on Friday. The
trough will move east of the Mississippi River on Saturday, while
surface flow becomes southerly. This will filter an abundance of
moisture into the region which will combine with the forcing
associated with the trough bringing a greater coverage of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The trough will slowly move
eastward through Sunday, with another round of showers and
thunderstorms expected again on Sunday. The better chances for
rain will remain over the northeastern portions of the area, where
the forcing is a bit higher. Even still, this activity will be
diurnally enhanced with the best chances of rain areawide during
each afternoon, diminishing during the overnight hours with the
loss of daytime heating. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will continue through early next week, with coverage generally
remaining isolated.

Temperatures through the period will be a few degrees below what
we`ve observed the past couple of days, as increasing clouds and
weak height falls impact the area. This will keep highs in the 80s
and overnight lows in the 60s. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A light offshore flow develops tonight then becomes southeasterly
on Wednesday. A light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails for
Thursday through Sunday. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  70  90  69  88  70  85  69 /  10  10  20  20  30  20  50  40
Pensacola   91  73  88  71  87  72  84  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20  40  40
Destin      90  74  88  72  86  73  84  72 /   0   0   0  10  20  20  40  30
Evergreen   91  66  88  65  87  65  87  66 /  10  10  20  20  20  20  50  40
Waynesboro  92  67  87  65  88  66  85  66 /  20  20  30  20  30  30  60  40
Camden      89  66  83  65  86  65  85  65 /  10  10  20  20  30  20  50  40
Crestview   93  65  91  65  89  66  86  67 /  10  10  10  10  20  20  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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