424
FXUS64 KMOB 161134
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR to MVFR cigs will persist throughout the forecast as scattered
to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across
the area. Temporary reductions in visibilities could occur mainly
along the coast this morning and then inland this afternoon.
Showers should diminish overnight with VFR conditions returning.
Winds will remain light around 10 knots out of the southeast.
BB/03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The summer rainy season is about to kick it off this week as a
rather active pattern sets up as early as this morning. The high
pressure that has given us the heat and drier conditions this week
will quickly translate east into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile,
a series of inverted troughs will work their way around the
northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America.
This semi-persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre
and typically set up around this time of year and can be the
spawning grounds for some early season tropical mischief. The good
news is for our area that while a few weak systems could be
possible in the coming weeks there are no signs that any of these
areas of interest will impact us directly. The bad news is that we
will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will
setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. In
this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches to as
high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and pattern
in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy week.
Rain chances will begin this morning and only increase through the
period. Current radar shows showers already developing over the
marine waters and those are only expected to expand in coverage
later this morning as they approach the coast. The best rain
chances today will be along the coast and then expanding across
southwestern Alabama and into southeastern Mississippi. Areas more
east of I-65 will still see rain but could be more scattered in
nature given the proximity to the upper ridge. Rain chances relax
during the overnight hours as the first wave pushes through.

By Monday the next wave will enter the area bringing widely scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will
continue to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal
southwestern Alabama where better low level convergence will be
present. The biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be
highly efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous
forcing, dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for
storms will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now.
While some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be
confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones. Along with the
increased rain chances, waves will be on the general increase
leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents beginning today and
eventually large breaking waves at the beaches leading to a high
surf advisory. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper ridge centered mostly over the easternmost states builds
into the forecast region which allows for progressively drier air
to flow into much of the area, which tempers pops compared to the
NEAR TERM period. Precipitable water values of initially around
2 inches Monday evening gradually trend through Tuesday night to
1.35-1.5 inches over much of the area, except for portions of
southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama which manage to hang on
to the best deep layer moisture. A combination of a surface ridge
strengthening over the mid Atlantic coast into the southeast
states along with a western Gulf system tends to promote a mainly
easterly flow over interior areas with an east to southeast flow
near the coast. This sets up a modest low level convergent zone
near the coast which along with a modest sea breeze aids in
precipitation development. For Monday night and Tuesday night,
will have slight chance to chance pops near the coast. For
Tuesday, with daytime heating aiding development, have gone with
chance pops for roughly the southern half of the area with lesser
pops further inland. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night range
from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A High
Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory are in effect through
the period. /29

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper ridge over the region is deflected away from the area
Thursday into Friday by an easterly wave which advances from near
the Florida peninsula to across the eastern half of the Gulf along
with the adjacent coastal areas. The sea breeze will support
chance pops over much of the coastal counties and extreme
southeast Mississippi on Wednesday and Thursday while further
inland dry conditions are expected. It`s possible that a surface
low will develop with the easterly wave and progress across the
region on Friday, but even if this does not occur the convective
environment will become more favorable with the departure of the
upper ridge along with much better deep layer moisture flowing
into the area. For now have gone with chance to good chance pops
for much of the area on Friday, but there is the potential for
higher rain chances depending on how the pattern plays out. Plenty
of deep layer moisture remains in place over the area on Saturday
and have opted for chance to likely pops. A High Risk of rip
currents and a High Surf Advisory will be in effect until 7 am
Thursday morning. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A light to moderate southeasterly flow will established today and
strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern Gulf.
Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early next
week. Small craft will need to exercise caution by Monday and
conditions will likely exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria by the
middle of the week. Conditions will also need to be monitored for
potential gale conditions as the low strengthens. Several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the forecast.
BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  74  88  74  88  75  90  73 /  80  40  70  30  40  30  40  20
Pensacola   89  77  90  77  89  77  90  75 /  80  40  70  40  40  40  40  30
Destin      87  77  90  77  90  78  91  75 /  70  30  60  40  40  30  30  30
Evergreen   93  72  92  71  91  71  92  69 /  60  20  40  10  20  10  10   0
Waynesboro  93  72  89  71  89  71  91  70 /  60  30  70  10  20  10  20  10
Camden      94  73  93  71  90  72  91  70 /  40  20  40  10  10  10  10   0
Crestview   92  72  93  71  93  72  93  69 /  70  20  40  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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