Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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924 FXUS64 KMOB 240505 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1205 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Exceptions being some IFR visibility due to fog late tonight across portions of south central Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, followed by a period of broken MVFR ceilings Friday morning. Light southerly winds continue tonight will become southerly around 10 knots on Friday. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Surface ridging holds firm across the area through tonight. Currently watching a MCS moving across northern Mississippi into northern Alabama, but CAM`s seem to be correct in that this system will fizzle and be deflected from our area due to the strong ridging. As such, we are generally not expecting any precipitation for our area tonight into Friday, so the dry conditions with partly cloudy skies will continue. Lows tonight should fall into the upper 60s to around 70 inland to low to mid 70s along the coast. On Friday expect another very warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s at the coast and upper 80s (to lower 90s over interior southeast MS) for all inland areas. DS/12 SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A mostly dry and warm pattern will continue through most of the weekend as upper level ridging remains centered over the Gulf coast region. This upper level pattern will result in a mainly zonal to at times northwesterly flow through the weekend with a few embedded shortwaves sliding along the northern periphery of the ridge and over northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. CAM`s indicate the possibility of the remnants of another MCS possibly sliding down into our interior zones from the northwest late Friday afternoon, and then possibly a few isolated showers or storms again on Saturday afternoon, but PoPs will be below 20 percent and, for the most part, we expect a generally dry forecast through the majority of the short term period. Nighttime low temperatures each night will range from the lower 70s over most of the interior (a few upper 60s possible) to the mid and upper 70s closer to and along the coast. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday mainly in the lower 90s, except for mid 80s along the coast. DS/12 LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The pattern will begin to change early next week as more significant rain chances enter back into the forecast. A longwave trough will move eastward over the Midwest into the eastern US with the base of the trough moving across our area early to mid week. A late season front is expected to move into the region late Monday into Tuesday, and this will bring the next chance for showers and storms to our area. Scattered showers and storms are expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday, then becoming more isolated late Tuesday into Tuesday night after the front moves through. Global guidance continues to indicate this front pushing offshore on with drier air filtering in behind it for Tuesday night into Thursday. Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints are also expected behind the front. DS/12 MARINE... Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A mainly light onshore flow pattern will continue over the marine area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Seas generally 2 feet or less. Winds will increase slightly over the weekend with a slight building of seas over the Gulf waters as well. No significant hazards to small craft are expected through the weekend. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 90 73 89 74 89 72 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 Pensacola 75 88 75 87 77 87 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 Destin 76 86 75 86 77 86 76 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 Evergreen 70 93 70 92 71 92 69 90 / 10 10 0 0 0 20 30 30 Waynesboro 71 93 70 94 72 94 67 90 / 10 10 0 0 10 20 30 20 Camden 70 92 70 92 71 93 67 88 / 10 10 10 0 10 30 40 20 Crestview 69 92 69 90 71 91 69 92 / 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob